Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Osasuna were slight favourites.
Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Osasuna. Osasuna had 5 days of rest, Sevilla 3 and had to travel 707 km.
Away travel707 kmRest days5 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Osasuna54%
Draw26%
Sevilla20%
Osasuna52%
Draw25%
Sevilla22%
Osasuna53%
Draw26%
Sevilla20%
Osasuna46%
Draw28%
Sevilla25%
Osasuna55%
Draw25%
Sevilla20%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 42
Team strength
Osasuna
Sevilla
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
50
AttackIn forecast
48
50
DefenceIn forecast
57
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaSevilla
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.66
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
66%
Scored inContext
75%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
11.16
ShotsContext
10.81
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.63
33%
On target shareContext
32%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.19
69%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.15
OffsidesContext
3.12
12.16
Shots allowedContext
10.31
4.61
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
3.32
BlocksContext
3.35
3.47
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
66%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
382
PassesContext
405
309
Accurate passesContext
330
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.74
13.28
FoulsContext
14.31
11.13
Fouls sufferedContext
12.47
2.31
Yellow cardsContext
2.69
0.16
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
0.69
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.40
ShotsContext
9.30
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.63
34%
On target shareContext
23%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
71%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.67
12.30
Shots allowedContext
9.80
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.44
BlocksContext
3.11
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
72%
Save rateContext
55%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
410
PassesContext
367
343
Accurate passesContext
292
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.69
14.50
FoulsContext
13.90
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km231 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sevilla
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel707 km1,079 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Sevilla |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Apr | 3La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 707 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 231 km | 1,079 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
20Javi Galán
22F. Boyomo
24Catena
19V. Rosier
8Iker Muñoz
7Moncayola
21Víctor Muñoz
10Aimar Oroz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
12G. Suazo
4Kike Salas
32A. López Gallo
2J. Carmona Navarro
36Oso
20M. Sow
18L. Agoumé
11R. Vargas
7Isaac Romero
17N. Maupay
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sevilla
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sevilla-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
1.93points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-2
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.13
Sevilla · Away
0.94points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-9
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Alaves | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Girona | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Mallorca | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H |
| Valencia | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Madrid | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Elche | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Villarreal | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–2 A | L 2–5 AW 4–1 H |
| Levante | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Getafe | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 39 of 93 · 1.26 per game | 31 of 93 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
3 Osasuna wins4 draws3 Sevilla wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.00
Over 2.520%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets30% · 50%
- 8 Nov 2025Sevilla1–0Osasuna
- 24 Apr 2025Osasuna1–0Sevilla
- 2 Dec 2024Sevilla1–1Osasuna
- 28 Jan 2024Sevilla1–1Osasuna
- 23 Sep 2023Osasuna0–0Sevilla
- 26 Feb 2023Sevilla2–3Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.22 | 1.66 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 2.88 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 66% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 56% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 59% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 34% | 25% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Osasuna | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.32 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 4.48 | |
| Match total | 8.03 | 9.58 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 12/28 | 58% 18/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 21% 6/28 | 55% 17/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 7% 2/28 | 39% 12/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.84 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.44 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.94 | 5.09 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 81% 26/32 | 69% 22/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 19/32 | 59% 19/32 | |
| Osasuna | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 8.56 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 5.10 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 4.26
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+48%league 47%
Fouls23.4league 24.5
Penalties0.21league 0.36
Home wins38%league 49%
Osasuna3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.7
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L8 Nov 25A · Sevilla0–13
- D11 May 25A · Real Betis1–12
- L3 Sep 23H · Barcelona1–22
Sevilla6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W8 Nov 25H · Osasuna1–05
- W30 Aug 25A · Girona2–01
- D20 Apr 25H · Alaves1–12
- L15 May 24H · Cadiz0–16
- L26 Nov 23A · Real Sociedad1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna31 games · scored 37 · conceded 39
5
1
0-15
2
7
16-30
12
5
31-45
8
46-60
2
12
61-75
16
6
76-90
Sevilla32 games · scored 39 · conceded 53
5
4
0-15
5
6
16-30
7
14
31-45
7
10
46-60
5
6
61-75
10
13
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
7
1
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
