Oviedo vs Atletico Madrid – 28 Feb 2026

La Liga Gameweek 26 Sat, Feb 28 · 20:00 Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo

Oviedo 20th · 17 pts · 24 played LLWLD

0–1Full time

Atletico Madrid 4th · 48 pts · 25 played WDLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Oviedo. Oviedo had 7.3 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 7 and had to travel 372 km.

Away travel372 kmRest days7.3 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Oviedo19%

Draw24%

Atletico Madrid58%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.85

Oviedo14%

Draw21%

Atletico Madrid64%

Expected goals 0.87 – 2.06

Oviedo20%

Draw24%

Atletico Madrid56%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.79

Oviedo14%

Draw21%

Atletico Madrid65%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.08

Oviedo19%

Draw23%

Atletico Madrid58%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.97

Over 2.5 54% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Oviedo)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 38

Team strength

Oviedo

Atletico Madrid

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 81

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 81

23 AttackIn forecast 82

39 DefenceIn forecast 87

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Oviedo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Oviedo

Atletico Madrid

0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.68

1.63 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.92

0.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

42% Scored inContext 84%

25% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.17 ShotsContext 12.96

2.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.48

31% On target shareContext 42%

5.83 Shots in the boxContext 9.16

61% Box shareContext 70%

7% ConversionContext 13%

2.52 OffsidesContext 2.65

14.71 Shots allowedContext 10.16

5.92 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.13

3.58 BlocksContext 2.70

4.42 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.32

75% Save rateContext 72%

44% PossessionIn forecast 55%

372 PassesContext 515

304 Accurate passesContext 443

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.92

12.63 FoulsContext 11.12

11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

1.83 Yellow cardsContext 1.92

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 24 and 25 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.67

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

60% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.90 ShotsContext 15.30

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60

30% On target shareContext 37%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 11.20

66% Box shareContext 74%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.75 OffsidesContext 3.20

12.60 Shots allowedContext 9.50

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

3.10 BlocksContext 2.60

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

66% Save rateContext 67%

45% PossessionIn forecast 56%

356 PassesContext 544

284 Accurate passesContext 470

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.95

14.20 FoulsContext 9.80

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 6.90

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Oviedo

Rest7.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km626 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atletico Madrid

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel372 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Oviedo	Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.3La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb	7La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	372 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	626 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Oviedo Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13Aarón Escandell(G)

25Javi López 16David Carmo 12Dani Calvo 22Nacho Vidal

23N. Fonseca 6Kwasi Sibo

7I. Chaira 5Alberto Reina 10H. Hassan

9Federico Viñas

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13J. Oblak(G)

34Julio Díaz 24R. Le Normand 2J. Giménez 16N. Molina

10Álex Baena 5J. Cardoso 4Rodrigo Mendoza 11T. Almada

22A. Lookman 9A. Sørloth

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Oviedo Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Oviedo-0.8 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Atletico Madrid+1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Oviedo · Home 0.92points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 2-5-5
Scored: 0.42
Conceded: 1.08

Atletico Madrid · Away 1.17points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 3-5-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.08

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Oviedo	Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad	D 3–3 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Athletic Club	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A	L 0–1 A
Girona	W 1–0 HD 3–3 A	W 3–0 A
Barcelona	L 0–3 AL 1–3 H	L 1–3 A
Osasuna	L 2–3 AD 0–0 H	W 1–0 H
Real Betis	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 HW 2–0 A
Alaves	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Celta Vigo	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 A
Sevilla	L 0–4 A	W 3–0 H
Mallorca	D 0–0 H	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A
Rayo Vallecano	D 0–0 H	L 0–3 AW 3–2 H
Espanyol	L 0–2 H	W 4–2 HL 1–2 A
Levante	L 0–2 H	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H
Valencia	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
Elche	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Getafe	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 A
Real Madrid	L 0–3 H	W 5–2 H
Villarreal	L 0–2 A	W 2–0 H
Points	17 of 69 · 0.74 per game	45 of 72 · 1.88 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Oviedo wins0 draws1 Atletico Madrid wins

Goals per game0.00 – 2.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

29 Nov 2025Atletico Madrid2–0Oviedo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Oviedo	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	1.68
Conceded per game	1.63	0.92
Match goals	2.29	2.60	2.82
Over 1.5	67%	76%
Over 2.5	38%	44%	54%
Over 3.5	21%	20%
Both teams scored	33%	48%	53%
Clean sheets	25%	40%
Failed to score	58%	16%
Games	24	25

	Oviedo	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.40
Conceded per game	1.70	0.90
Match goals	2.60	2.30	2.82
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Oviedo	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	6.80
Corners conceded	5.63	3.64
Match total	9.38	10.44	9.54
Over 8.5	58% 14/24	76% 19/25
Over 9.5	50% 12/24	56% 14/25
Over 10.5	33% 8/24	52% 13/25
Cards
Cards	2.17	2.00
Opponent cards	1.46	2.00
Match total	3.63	4.00	4.44
Over 3.5	46% 11/24	60% 15/25
Over 4.5	29% 7/24	36% 9/25

	Oviedo	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	6.70
Corners conceded	4.60	3.90
Match total	9.10	10.60	9.54
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.90
Opponent cards	1.60	1.50
Match total	3.80	3.40	4.44
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 38 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.61league 4.18

Red cards0.26league 0.27

Cards 5+55%league 46%

Fouls23.8league 24.5

Penalties0.29league 0.38

Home wins50%league 47%

Oviedo1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L9 Nov 25A · Athletic Club0–11

Atletico Madrid6 with this referee

Record4-2-0 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.2 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

W13 Dec 25H · Valencia2–14
D5 Oct 25A · Celta Vigo1–13
D23 Aug 25H · Elche1–11
W3 Mar 24H · Real Betis2–11
W31 Jan 24H · Rayo Vallecano2–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.