Oviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celta Vigo were slight favourites.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 25). Oviedo had 6 days of rest, Celta Vigo 5.9 and had to travel 266 km.
Away travel266 kmRest days6 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Oviedo23%
Draw26%
Celta Vigo51%
Oviedo23%
Draw25%
Celta Vigo51%
Oviedo23%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo50%
Oviedo18%
Draw24%
Celta Vigo58%
Oviedo23%
Draw25%
Celta Vigo52%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Oviedo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 26
Team strength
Oviedo
Celta Vigo
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
23
AttackIn forecast
36
39
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OviedoCelta Vigo
0.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.19
0.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
25%
Scored inContext
88%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
8.13
ShotsContext
10.25
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.63
31%
On target shareContext
35%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.31
59%
Box shareContext
60%
5%
ConversionContext
12%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.50
15.69
Shots allowedContext
12.44
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.81
BlocksContext
3.27
5.06
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
78%
Save rateContext
78%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
385
PassesContext
500
320
Accurate passesContext
430
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.69
FoulsContext
11.63
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
1.69
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.19
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
20%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.80
ShotsContext
8.90
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
27%
On target shareContext
42%
5.78
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
63%
Box shareContext
60%
6%
ConversionContext
20%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.71
13.60
Shots allowedContext
12.80
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.70
BlocksContext
3.44
4.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
77%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
415
PassesContext
478
350
Accurate passesContext
408
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.90
FoulsContext
12.40
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Oviedo
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,330 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celta Vigo
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel266 km930 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Oviedo |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 266 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,330 km | 930 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.2 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
3Abdel Rahim
2E. Bailly
4David Costas
24Lucas Ahijado
11S. Colombatto
6Kwasi Sibo
18J. Brekalo
5Alberto Reina
7I. Chaira
9Federico Viñas
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
2C. Starfelt
12Manu Fernández
5Sergio Carreira
16Miguel Román
8Fran Beltrán
17Javi Rueda
15Bryan Zaragoza
9Ferran Jutglà
19W. Swedberg
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Oviedo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Oviedo-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Celta Vigo+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Oviedo · Home
0.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Celta Vigo · Away
2.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-1
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Oviedo | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Osasuna | D 0–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Girona | D 3–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Levante | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 H | L 2–4 H |
| Elche | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Getafe | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | W 2–0 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 7 of 42 · 0.50 per game | 18 of 42 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Oviedo | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.44 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.19 | |
| Match goals | 2.06 | 2.44 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 31% | 25% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 19% | 69% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 13% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Oviedo | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.10 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 80% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Oviedo | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.19 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 8.75 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 10/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 9/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 5/16 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 1.81 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.31 | 2.69 | |
| Match total | 3.44 | 4.50 | 4.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 7/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 4/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Oviedo | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 2.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 7.11 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.20 | 4.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.08league 4.09
Red cards0.12league 0.28
Cards 5+46%league 45%
Fouls23.3league 24.6
Penalties0.35league 0.31
Home wins42%league 48%
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
Celta Vigo2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Apr 24H · Las Palmas4–11
- W17 Mar 24A · Sevilla2–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Oviedo15 games · scored 7 · conceded 26
3
0-15
6
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
3
7
76-90
Celta Vigo15 games · scored 18 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
5
3
76-90
Oviedo9 games · scored 5 · conceded 15
2
0-15
5
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Celta Vigo9 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
5
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
