Oviedo vs Elche – 26 Apr 2026

La Liga Gameweek 32 Sun, Apr 26 · 15:15 Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo

Oviedo 20th · 28 pts · 32 played WLWWD

1–2Full time

Elche 16th · 35 pts · 32 played LWLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Oviedo were slight favourites.

Elche were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Oviedo. Oviedo had 2.8 days of rest, Elche 3.9 and had to travel 713 km.

Away travel713 kmRest days2.8 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 1

Oviedo41%

Draw27%

Elche32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.25

Oviedo39%

Draw27%

Elche34%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28

Oviedo42%

Draw27%

Elche32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.24

Oviedo34%

Draw27%

Elche39%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.40

Oviedo42%

Draw26%

Elche31%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.29

Over 2.5 51% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Oviedo)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 58

Team strength

Oviedo

Elche

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 41

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

23 AttackIn forecast 39

39 DefenceIn forecast 51

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Oviedo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Elche

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Oviedo

Elche

0.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.31

1.53 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.53

0.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

50% Scored inContext 84%

28% Clean sheetsContext 22%

9.41 ShotsContext 10.66

3.16 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

34% On target shareContext 36%

6.03 Shots in the boxContext 7.53

61% Box shareContext 68%

8% ConversionContext 12%

2.42 OffsidesContext 2.23

14.59 Shots allowedContext 14.34

5.74 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.84

3.81 BlocksContext 3.91

4.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

75% Save rateContext 67%

45% PossessionIn forecast 58%

382 PassesContext 500

312 Accurate passesContext 429

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.88

12.50 FoulsContext 12.59

11.63 Fouls sufferedContext 13.94

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.20 ShotsContext 11.20

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

38% On target shareContext 39%

7.13 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

63% Box shareContext 72%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.86

13.90 Shots allowedContext 13.30

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

4.40 BlocksContext 3.50

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

70% Save rateContext 66%

49% PossessionIn forecast 59%

402 PassesContext 487

324 Accurate passesContext 411

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.84

12.10 FoulsContext 12.50

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 15.10

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Oviedo

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km532 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Elche

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel713 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Oviedo	Elche
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Apr	3.9La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	713 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	532 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Oviedo Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13Aarón Escandell(G)

3Abdel Rahim 16David Carmo 4David Costas 22Nacho Vidal

23N. Fonseca 6Kwasi Sibo

7I. Chaira 5Alberto Reina 10H. Hassan

9Federico Viñas

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Elche Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1M. Dituro(G)

3Adrià Pedrosa 6Bigas 22D. Affengruber 42Buba Sangaré 39Héctor Fort

14Aleix Febas 8Marc Aguado 12Gonzalo Villar

20Á. Rodríguez 9André Silva

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Oviedo Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Elche Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Oviedo-0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Elche+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Oviedo · Home 1.13points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 4-6-6
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.94

Elche · Away 0.27points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 0-4-11
Scored: 0.93
Conceded: 2.07

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Oviedo	Elche
Villarreal	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	L 1–2 AL 1–3 H
Celta Vigo	W 3–0 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 H
Sevilla	W 1–0 HL 0–4 A	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Levante	L 2–4 AL 0–2 H	L 2–3 AW 2–0 H
Valencia	W 1–0 HW 2–1 A	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Espanyol	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
Rayo Vallecano	L 0–3 AD 0–0 H	L 0–1 AW 4–0 H
Atletico Madrid	L 0–1 HL 0–2 A	W 3–2 HD 1–1 A
Real Sociedad	D 3–3 AW 1–0 H	L 1–3 AD 1–1 H
Athletic Club	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H
Girona	W 1–0 HD 3–3 A	W 3–0 H
Barcelona	L 0–3 AL 1–3 H	L 1–3 HL 1–3 A
Osasuna	L 2–3 AD 0–0 H	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A
Real Betis	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Alaves	D 1–1 A	L 1–3 A
Mallorca	D 0–0 H	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A
Getafe	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 A
Real Madrid	L 0–3 H	L 1–4 AD 2–2 H
Points	28 of 93 · 0.90 per game	32 of 93 · 1.03 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Oviedo wins0 draws1 Elche wins

Goals per game0.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

21 Sep 2025Elche1–0Oviedo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Oviedo	Elche	Forecast
Scored per game	0.78	1.31
Conceded per game	1.53	1.53
Match goals	2.31	2.84	2.70
Over 1.5	66%	78%
Over 2.5	38%	59%	51%
Over 3.5	19%	44%
Both teams scored	34%	69%	55%
Clean sheets	28%	22%
Failed to score	50%	16%
Games	32	32

	Oviedo	Elche	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.20
Conceded per game	1.50	1.70
Match goals	2.80	2.90	2.70
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	51%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Oviedo	Elche	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	3.84
Corners conceded	5.73	4.59
Match total	9.43	8.43	9.60
Over 8.5	60% 18/30	47% 15/32
Over 9.5	53% 16/30	38% 12/32
Over 10.5	37% 11/30	25% 8/32
Cards
Cards	2.25	2.25
Opponent cards	1.56	2.19
Match total	3.81	4.44	4.53
Over 3.5	50% 16/32	78% 25/32
Over 4.5	34% 11/32	50% 16/32

	Oviedo	Elche	League
Corners
Corners won	3.63	5.00
Corners conceded	5.88	4.20
Match total	9.51	9.20	9.60
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.30
Opponent cards	2.00	2.20
Match total	4.30	4.50	4.53
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 58 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.34league 4.27

Red cards0.31league 0.28

Cards 5+50%league 47%

Fouls24.8league 24.5

Penalties0.28league 0.37

Home wins52%league 49%

Oviedo

No previous matches with this referee.

Elche1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D13 Feb 26H · Osasuna0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.