Oviedo vs Espanyol – 17 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 9 Fri, Oct 17 · 20:00 Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo

Oviedo 17th · 6 pts · 8 played LLLWL

0–2Full time

Espanyol 9th · 12 pts · 8 played WLDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Espanyol were slight favourites.

Espanyol were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 27). Oviedo had 13.3 days of rest, Espanyol 12.1 and had to travel 688 km.

Away travel688 kmRest days13.3 · 12.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Oviedo29%

Draw29%

Espanyol42%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.33

Oviedo30%

Draw27%

Espanyol43%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.49

Oviedo29%

Draw29%

Espanyol42%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.33

Oviedo23%

Draw28%

Espanyol49%

Expected goals 0.95 – 1.49

Oviedo30%

Draw27%

Espanyol43%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.49

Over 2.5 43% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Oviedo)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer

Cards per match 5.9
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 26

Team strength

Oviedo

Espanyol

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

23 AttackIn forecast 36

39 DefenceIn forecast 51

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Oviedo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Oviedo

Espanyol

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.38

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

0.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

38% Scored inContext 75%

13% Clean sheetsContext 25%

7.75 ShotsContext 12.63

2.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25

34% On target shareContext 34%

4.25 Shots in the boxContext 7.63

53% Box shareContext 61%

7% ConversionContext 11%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.00

18.00 Shots allowedContext 13.00

6.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.63

5.50 BlocksContext 3.63

5.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.71

77% Save rateContext 74%

40% PossessionIn forecast 42%

362 PassesContext 361

296 Accurate passesContext 290

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.81

11.25 FoulsContext 13.38

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.63

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

0.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

38% Scored inContext 70%

13% Clean sheetsContext 30%

7.75 ShotsContext 12.50

2.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

34% On target shareContext 34%

4.25 Shots in the boxContext 7.40

53% Box shareContext 60%

7% ConversionContext 10%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.86

18.00 Shots allowedContext 13.00

6.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

5.50 BlocksContext 3.80

5.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

77% Save rateContext 76%

40% PossessionIn forecast 43%

362 PassesContext 368

296 Accurate passesContext 298

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.25 FoulsContext 12.40

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 8 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Oviedo

Rest13.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Espanyol

Rest12.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel688 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Oviedo	Espanyol
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13.3La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct	12.1La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	688 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.7	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Oviedo Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13Aarón Escandell(G)

3Abdel Rahim 16David Carmo 2E. Bailly 22Nacho Vidal

11S. Colombatto 20L. Dendoncker

7I. Chaira 21L. Ilić 10H. Hassan

23S. Rondón

Espanyol Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13M. Dmitrović(G)

22Carlos Romero 6L. Cabrera 38C. Riedel 2Rubén Sánchez

11Pere Milla 10Pol Lozano 8Edu Expósito 24T. Dolan

19Kike García 9R. Fernández Jaén

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Oviedo Absences are shown before kick-off

Espanyol Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Oviedo+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Espanyol+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Oviedo · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.00

Espanyol · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Oviedo	Espanyol
Valencia	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 H
Real Sociedad	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 A
Real Madrid	L 0–3 H	L 0–2 A
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	2 of 9 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Oviedo	Espanyol	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.38
Conceded per game	1.75	1.38
Match goals	2.25	2.75	2.39
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	38%	63%	43%
Over 3.5	13%	38%
Both teams scored	25%	63%	49%
Clean sheets	13%	25%
Failed to score	63%	25%
Games	8	8

	Oviedo	Espanyol	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.38
Conceded per game	1.75	1.38
Match goals	2.25	2.75	2.39
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	38%	63%	43%
Over 3.5	13%	38%
Both teams scored	25%	63%	49%
Clean sheets	13%	25%
Failed to score	63%	25%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Oviedo	Espanyol	League
Corners
Corners won	3.25	4.00
Corners conceded	6.50	5.00
Match total	9.75	9.00	9.81
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	2.75	1.75
Opponent cards	1.25	2.38
Match total	4.00	4.13	4.37
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	50% 4/8

	Oviedo	Espanyol	League
Corners
Corners won	3.25	4.10
Corners conceded	6.50	5.40
Match total	9.75	9.50	9.81
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.75	1.80
Opponent cards	1.25	2.20
Match total	4.00	4.00	4.37
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 26 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.50league 4.10

Red cards0.35league 0.29

Cards 5+73%league 46%

Fouls24.6league 24.4

Penalties0.23league 0.33

Home wins50%league 49%

Oviedo

No previous matches with this referee.

Espanyol1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W17 Aug 25H · Atletico Madrid2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.