Oviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Girona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Oviedo. Oviedo had 5.9 days of rest, Girona 4.7 and had to travel 725 km.
Away travel725 kmRest days5.9 · 4.7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Oviedo33%
Draw29%
Girona38%
Oviedo32%
Draw27%
Girona41%
Oviedo32%
Draw29%
Girona38%
Oviedo27%
Draw28%
Girona45%
Oviedo34%
Draw28%
Girona38%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Oviedo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 36
Team strength
Oviedo
Girona
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
23
AttackIn forecast
49
39
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGirona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OviedoGirona
0.52
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
33%
Scored inContext
71%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
9.14
ShotsContext
9.29
2.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
31%
On target shareContext
39%
5.65
Shots in the boxContext
5.95
59%
Box shareContext
64%
6%
ConversionContext
11%
2.47
OffsidesContext
2.56
15.24
Shots allowedContext
15.10
6.19
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.62
BlocksContext
3.52
4.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
76%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
377
PassesContext
438
310
Accurate passesContext
372
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.76
FoulsContext
10.95
11.05
Fouls sufferedContext
14.62
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
30%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.20
ShotsContext
9.90
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
28%
On target shareContext
34%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
63%
Box shareContext
66%
4%
ConversionContext
11%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.80
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
2.60
BlocksContext
3.40
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
75%
Save rateContext
76%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
381
PassesContext
476
313
Accurate passesContext
410
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.30
FoulsContext
11.50
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Oviedo
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,078 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Girona
Rest4.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel725 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Oviedo |
Girona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 4.7La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 725 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,078 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
16David Carmo
4David Costas
22Nacho Vidal
11S. Colombatto
6Kwasi Sibo
7I. Chaira
5Alberto Reina
10H. Hassan
9Federico Viñas
Girona
Confirmed XI
22M. ter Stegen(G)
24Álex Moreno
17D. Blind
12Vitor Reis
4Arnau Martínez
11T. Lemar
8Fran Beltrán
23Iván Martín
21Bryan Gil
19V. Vanat
15V. Tsyhankov
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Girona
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Oviedo+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Girona-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Oviedo · Home
0.80points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-4
- Scored
- 0.30
- Conceded
- 1.10
Girona · Away
1.20points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-4
- Scored
- 1.10
- Conceded
- 1.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Oviedo | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Osasuna | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Alaves | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Sevilla | L 0–4 A | L 0–2 H |
| Mallorca | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 H |
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Levante | L 0–2 H | L 0–4 H |
| Valencia | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Elche | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Getafe | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Villarreal | L 0–2 A | L 0–5 A |
| Points | 12 of 60 · 0.60 per game | 24 of 60 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Oviedo wins1 draws0 Girona wins
Goals per game3.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 25 Oct 2025Girona3–3Oviedo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Oviedo | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.52 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.67 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 52% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 57% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 29% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Oviedo | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.20 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Oviedo | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 4.16 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.81 | 4.68 | |
| Match total | 9.52 | 8.84 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 13/21 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 11/21 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 7/21 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.52 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.38 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 4.23 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 10/21 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 6/21 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Oviedo | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 3.11 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 6.44 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.20 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.42league 4.17
Red cards0.19league 0.28
Cards 5+25%league 46%
Fouls24.2league 24.6
Penalties0.39league 0.36
Home wins47%league 48%
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
Girona3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W4 Jan 26A · Mallorca2–11
- L15 Aug 25H · Rayo Vallecano1–31
- W20 Apr 24H · Cadiz4–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Oviedo20 games · scored 11 · conceded 34
3
0-15
6
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
7
61-75
3
9
76-90
Girona21 games · scored 21 · conceded 35
2
3
0-15
5
6
16-30
3
6
31-45
1
8
46-60
3
5
61-75
7
7
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 4 · conceded 15
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
