Oviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Osasuna were slight favourites.
Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 26). Absences weigh more on Osasuna. Oviedo had 9.3 days of rest, Osasuna 8.1 and had to travel 346 km.
Away travel346 kmRest days9.3 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Oviedo27%
Draw28%
Osasuna45%
Oviedo27%
Draw26%
Osasuna47%
Oviedo27%
Draw28%
Osasuna45%
Oviedo22%
Draw26%
Osasuna52%
Oviedo28%
Draw26%
Osasuna46%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Oviedo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 5
Team strength
Oviedo
Osasuna
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
23
AttackIn forecast
50
39
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOsasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OviedoOsasuna
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
40%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.30
ShotsContext
9.50
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
34%
On target shareContext
33%
4.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
55%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.67
17.10
Shots allowedContext
13.60
6.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.90
BlocksContext
3.56
5.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
75%
Save rateContext
76%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
370
PassesContext
397
306
Accurate passesContext
319
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.90
FoulsContext
11.90
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
40%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.30
ShotsContext
9.50
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
34%
On target shareContext
33%
4.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
55%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.67
17.10
Shots allowedContext
13.60
6.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.90
BlocksContext
3.56
5.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
75%
Save rateContext
76%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
370
PassesContext
397
306
Accurate passesContext
319
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.90
FoulsContext
11.90
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Oviedo
Rest9.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,450 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Osasuna
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel346 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Oviedo |
Osasuna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.3La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 8.1La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 346 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,450 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.7 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
16David Carmo
4David Costas
22Nacho Vidal
20L. Dendoncker
11S. Colombatto
7I. Chaira
5Alberto Reina
9Federico Viñas
23S. Rondón
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
23Abel Bretones
24Catena
22F. Boyomo
7Moncayola
21Víctor Muñoz
6Lucas Torró
16Moi Gómez
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
9Raúl García
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Osasuna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Oviedo+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Osasuna-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Oviedo · Home
0.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 0.40
- Conceded
- 2.00
Osasuna · Away
0.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-5
- Scored
- 0.20
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Oviedo | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Valencia | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Elche | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Getafe | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 18 · 0.50 per game | 7 of 18 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Oviedo | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.10 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Oviedo | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.10 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Oviedo | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 7.13 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.30 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Oviedo | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 7.13 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.30 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.40league 4.03
Red cards0.20league 0.27
Cards 5+80%league 44%
Fouls24.0league 24.6
Penalties0.00league 0.36
Home wins20%league 49%
Oviedo1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.6.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L13 Sep 25A · Getafe0–26
OsasunaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Oviedo10 games · scored 7 · conceded 19
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
3
0-15
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 7 · conceded 19
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
3
0-15
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
