Oviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 26). Oviedo had 14 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 13.9 and had to travel 372 km.
Away travel372 kmRest days14 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Oviedo26%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano47%
Oviedo26%
Draw26%
Rayo Vallecano47%
Oviedo26%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano47%
Oviedo21%
Draw25%
Rayo Vallecano54%
Oviedo27%
Draw26%
Rayo Vallecano47%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Oviedo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 10
Team strength
Oviedo
Rayo Vallecano
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
23
AttackIn forecast
61
39
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OviedoRayo Vallecano
0.58
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
33%
Scored inContext
58%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
7.75
ShotsContext
12.25
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
33%
4.73
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
56%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.55
OffsidesContext
2.56
16.83
Shots allowedContext
11.67
6.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
4.33
BlocksContext
3.92
5.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.27
79%
Save rateContext
72%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
379
PassesContext
432
313
Accurate passesContext
361
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.83
FoulsContext
12.75
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.25
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
40%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
8.20
ShotsContext
13.80
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
31%
On target shareContext
31%
5.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
57%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.33
15.20
Shots allowedContext
11.30
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.80
BlocksContext
4.33
4.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
77%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
385
PassesContext
451
318
Accurate passesContext
381
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.60
FoulsContext
13.20
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Oviedo
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km473 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rayo Vallecano
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel372 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Oviedo |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14La Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 13.9La Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 372 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 473 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 8.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
12Dani Calvo
4David Costas
22Nacho Vidal
20L. Dendoncker
11S. Colombatto
7I. Chaira
8Santi Cazorla
9Federico Viñas
23S. Rondón
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
32N. Mendy
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
17Unai López
23Óscar Valentín
18Álvaro García
7Isi Palazón
19Jorge de Frutos
10Sergio Camello
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Oviedo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Oviedo+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Rayo Vallecano-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Oviedo · Home
0.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-4
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Rayo Vallecano · Away
1.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-4
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Oviedo | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Osasuna | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Girona | D 3–3 A | W 3–1 A |
| Levante | L 0–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | D 0–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 0–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 5 of 24 · 0.63 per game | 11 of 24 · 1.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Oviedo | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.58 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.17 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 42% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Oviedo | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.10 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 30% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Oviedo | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.17 | 6.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.42 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 9.59 | 11.42 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 7/12 | 83% 10/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 7/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 4/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.58 | 3.83 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 6/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 3/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Oviedo | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 6.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 6.67 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 12.89 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.50 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.30league 4.00
Red cards0.40league 0.26
Cards 5+40%league 43%
Fouls26.0league 24.5
Penalties0.50league 0.34
Home wins30%league 49%
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
Rayo Vallecano1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D19 Apr 25H · Valencia1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Oviedo11 games · scored 7 · conceded 20
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Rayo Vallecano12 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Oviedo9 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
