Oviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Betis were slight favourites.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 27). Oviedo had 5.8 days of rest, Real Betis 5.9 and had to travel 665 km.
Away travel665 kmRest days5.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Oviedo19%
Draw25%
Real Betis56%
Oviedo19%
Draw24%
Real Betis57%
Oviedo19%
Draw25%
Real Betis56%
Oviedo15%
Draw23%
Real Betis63%
Oviedo19%
Draw24%
Real Betis57%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Oviedo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 35
Team strength
Oviedo
Real Betis
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
72
23
AttackIn forecast
79
39
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OviedoReal Betis
0.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
28%
Scored inContext
89%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.78
ShotsContext
14.67
2.72
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
31%
On target shareContext
34%
5.29
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
58%
Box shareContext
61%
5%
ConversionContext
11%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.08
15.28
Shots allowedContext
12.11
6.28
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.61
BlocksContext
3.06
4.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.06
79%
Save rateContext
72%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
386
PassesContext
453
321
Accurate passesContext
382
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.22
FoulsContext
10.44
11.22
Fouls sufferedContext
12.61
1.72
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
20%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.60
ShotsContext
14.10
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
29%
On target shareContext
39%
6.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
63%
Box shareContext
62%
4%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.20
13.10
Shots allowedContext
12.40
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.10
BlocksContext
3.78
4.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
80%
Save rateContext
68%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
406
PassesContext
425
340
Accurate passesContext
354
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.00
FoulsContext
11.50
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Oviedo
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km527 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Betis
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel665 km781 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Oviedo |
Real Betis |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Jan | 5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 665 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 527 km | 781 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
3Abdel Rahim
16David Carmo
4David Costas
24Lucas Ahijado
11S. Colombatto
6Kwasi Sibo
7I. Chaira
5Alberto Reina
10H. Hassan
19Álex Forés
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
23J. Firpo
16Valentín Gómez
5Marc Bartra
40Ángel Ortiz
8Pablo Fornals
21Marc Roca
20G. Lo Celso
24Aitor Ruibal
19C. Hernández
7Antony
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Oviedo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Betis
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Oviedo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Real Betis+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Oviedo · Home
0.78points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-4
- Scored
- 0.22
- Conceded
- 1.11
Real Betis · Away
1.33points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-6-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Oviedo | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Sevilla | L 0–4 A | W 2–0 A |
| Mallorca | D 0–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Osasuna | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Girona | D 3–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Levante | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Valencia | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 H | L 3–5 H |
| Elche | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Getafe | L 0–2 A | W 4–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 1–5 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 12 of 54 · 0.67 per game | 28 of 54 · 1.56 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Oviedo | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.44 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 1.94 | 3.00 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 61% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 28% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 22% | 61% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 72% | 11% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Oviedo | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 3.30 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 80% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Oviedo | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.94 | 5.41 | |
| Match total | 9.61 | 10.23 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 11/18 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 10/18 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 6/18 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.39 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.56 | 4.39 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 8/18 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 5/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Oviedo | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.11 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.70 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.77league 4.11
Red cards0.31league 0.27
Cards 5+66%league 46%
Fouls26.3league 24.5
Penalties0.43league 0.34
Home wins49%league 46%
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
Real Betis3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 May 25A · Espanyol2–10
- W25 Feb 24H · Athletic Club3–11
- W13 Jan 24H · Granada CF1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Oviedo17 games · scored 8 · conceded 27
3
0-15
6
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
61-75
3
7
76-90
Real Betis18 games · scored 30 · conceded 24
3
7
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
6
5
46-60
7
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
Oviedo9 games · scored 4 · conceded 13
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
