Oviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Sevilla were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Oviedo. Oviedo had 15 days of rest, Sevilla 14.9 and had to travel 665 km.
Away travel665 kmRest days15 · 14.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Oviedo39%
Draw29%
Sevilla32%
Oviedo35%
Draw27%
Sevilla38%
Oviedo39%
Draw29%
Sevilla32%
Oviedo32%
Draw29%
Sevilla38%
Oviedo40%
Draw28%
Sevilla32%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Oviedo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 132
Team strength
Oviedo
Sevilla
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
23
AttackIn forecast
48
39
DefenceIn forecast
57
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OviedoSevilla
0.69
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.28
1.66
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.69
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
45%
Scored inContext
79%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
9.34
ShotsContext
11.00
3.03
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.69
33%
On target shareContext
34%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.24
61%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
2.52
OffsidesContext
3.30
15.24
Shots allowedContext
10.41
5.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.38
4.03
BlocksContext
3.48
4.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.16
74%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
374
PassesContext
417
305
Accurate passesContext
343
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.69
FoulsContext
14.59
11.76
Fouls sufferedContext
12.38
1.93
Yellow cardsContext
2.62
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.60
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
36%
On target shareContext
34%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
67%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.89
15.20
Shots allowedContext
10.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
5.00
BlocksContext
3.44
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
61%
Save rateContext
56%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
352
PassesContext
405
276
Accurate passesContext
330
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.69
13.30
FoulsContext
13.90
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Oviedo
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sevilla
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel665 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Oviedo |
Sevilla |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 14.9La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 665 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
12Dani Calvo
2E. Bailly
22Nacho Vidal
23N. Fonseca
6Kwasi Sibo
15T. Fernandez
5Alberto Reina
7I. Chaira
9Federico Viñas
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
36Oso
4Kike Salas
5T. Nianzou
2J. Carmona Navarro
6N. Gudelj
19B. Mendy
11R. Vargas
20M. Sow
16Juanlu Sánchez
9A. Adams
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Oviedo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sevilla
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Oviedo+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sevilla-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Oviedo · Home
1.00points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-6
- Scored
- 0.43
- Conceded
- 1.00
Sevilla · Away
1.07points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-7
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.93
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Oviedo | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Valencia | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Espanyol | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Girona | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H | L 2–5 AW 4–1 H |
| Osasuna | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Alaves | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Mallorca | D 0–0 H | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H |
| Elche | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Getafe | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 21 of 84 · 0.75 per game | 28 of 84 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Oviedo wins0 draws1 Sevilla wins
Goals per game0.00 – 4.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 14 Dec 2025Sevilla4–0Oviedo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Oviedo | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.69 | 1.28 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.66 | 1.69 | |
| Match goals | 2.34 | 2.97 | 2.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 66% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 59% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 34% | 62% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 55% | 21% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Oviedo | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Oviedo | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.68 | 4.46 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 9.35 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 17/28 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 15/28 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 10/28 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.21 | 2.76 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.52 | 2.07 | |
| Match total | 3.73 | 4.83 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 15/29 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 34% 10/29 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Oviedo | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 8.78 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.70 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 132 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.01league 4.23
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+58%league 47%
Fouls24.9league 24.5
Penalties0.31league 0.36
Home wins41%league 48%
Oviedo1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L4 Mar 26A · Rayo Vallecano0–32
Sevilla15 with this referee
Record5-4-6
Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.8
Pens for · against3 · 2
- L1 Nov 25A · Atletico Madrid0–33
- D4 May 25H · Leganes2–24
- L9 Feb 25H · Barcelona1–45
- W22 Apr 24H · Mallorca2–10
- L12 Jan 24H · Alaves2–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Oviedo28 games · scored 20 · conceded 48
1
4
0-15
2
7
16-30
6
7
31-45
4
7
46-60
3
10
61-75
4
13
76-90
Sevilla29 games · scored 37 · conceded 49
4
4
0-15
5
6
16-30
6
11
31-45
7
10
46-60
5
6
61-75
10
12
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
1
5
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
6
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
