Panathinaikos
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Plzen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 42). Absences weigh more on Panathinaikos. Panathinaikos had 14 days of rest, Plzen 14.1 and had to travel 1,544 km.
Away travel1,544 kmRest days14 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Panathinaikos38%
Draw27%
Plzen36%
Panathinaikos38%
Draw27%
Plzen35%
Panathinaikos38%
Draw27%
Plzen35%
Panathinaikos31%
Draw26%
Plzen43%
Panathinaikos37%
Draw27%
Plzen36%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Athens)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 71
Team strength
Panathinaikos
Plzen
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
49
48
AttackIn forecast
54
50
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPlzen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PanathinaikosPlzen
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
100%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
16.00
ShotsContext
13.20
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
35%
On target shareContext
38%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
59%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.40
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.60
BlocksContext
3.20
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
68%
Save rateContext
90%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
465
PassesContext
323
395
Accurate passesContext
253
85%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.96
9.60
FoulsContext
14.60
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
90%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.80
ShotsContext
15.89
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.11
38%
On target shareContext
39%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.89
59%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.10
Shots allowedContext
11.56
3.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.22
BlocksContext
3.33
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
79%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
452
PassesContext
350
372
Accurate passesContext
276
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.02
13.50
FoulsContext
13.00
15.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Panathinaikos
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Plzen
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,544 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Panathinaikos |
Plzen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov | 14.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,544 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 42 | 41.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Panathinaikos
Confirmed XI
40A. Lafont(G)
5A. Touba
14E. Palmer-Brown
15S. Ingason
2D. Calabria
6E. Siopis
4Pedro Chirivella
9A. Zaroury
31F. Đuričić
10Tetê
72M. Pantović
Plzen
Confirmed XI
44F. Wiegele(G)
14Merchas Doski
21V. Jemelka
40S. Dweh
99Amar Memić
18T. Ladra
32M. Valenta
6L. Červ
80P. Adu
17R. Durosinmi
9D. Višinský
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Panathinaikos
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Plzen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Panathinaikos-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Plzen+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Panathinaikos · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Plzen · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Panathinaikos | Plzen |
|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Panathinaikos | Plzen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 1.60 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Panathinaikos | Plzen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 1.60 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Panathinaikos | Plzen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.00 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 6.40 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Panathinaikos | Plzen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.11 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 7.55 | 11.00 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 6.10 | 4.90 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 71 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.97league 4.13
Red cards0.42league 0.19
Cards 5+55%league 42%
Fouls27.9league 24.7
Penalties0.34league 0.36
Home wins61%league 51%
Panathinaikos2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L24 Oct 24H · Chelsea1–41
- D5 Oct 23A · Maccabi Haifa0–02
Plzen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W23 Jan 25H · Anderlecht2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Panathinaikos5 games · scored 9 · conceded 7
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Plzen5 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Panathinaikos10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Plzen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
3
0-15
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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