PAOK
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Thu, Aug 6 · 18:45
Stadio Toumbas, Thessaloníki
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,827 kmRest days160.9 · 7Matches / 14d0 · 1
Real contextStrength only
PAOK—%
Draw—%
Anderlecht—%
Weather (Thessaloníki)
No weather data yet
RefereeJuan Martínez
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 70
Team strength
PAOK
Anderlecht
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
45
AttackIn forecast
37
55
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PAOKAnderlecht
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
29%
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
14%
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
67%
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.63
ShotsContext
14.44
3.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
35%
6.14
Shots in the boxContext
7.63
65%
Box shareContext
56%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
3.14
OffsidesContext
1.86
8.25
Shots allowedContext
14.44
2.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
2.29
BlocksContext
4.63
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
74%
Save rateContext
59%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
485
PassesContext
409
409
Accurate passesContext
325
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.61
11.88
FoulsContext
13.00
11.88
Fouls sufferedContext
10.11
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PAOK
Rest160.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Anderlecht
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,827 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PAOK |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 160.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 26 Feb | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 30 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,827 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PAOK
Confirmed XI
1J. Pavlenka(G)
18J. Gómez
5G. Michailidis
4P. Hatzidiakos
3J. Kenny
7B. Santamaría
20C. Zafeiris
11Taison
65G. Konstantelias
14A. Živković
56A. Mythou
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
5M. N'Diaye
4G. Biancone
27L. Pétrot
79A. Maamar
55M. Kana
18L. Ambros
24E. Llansana
9M. CvetkoviÄ
14D. Sikan
49J. Onia-Seke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PAOK
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
PAOK · Home
No home games yet this season.
Anderlecht · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| PAOK | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | — | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | — | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | — | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | — | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | — | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | — | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | — | 0% | |
| Failed to score | — | 0% | |
| Games | 0 | 2 |
| PAOK | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.20 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PAOK | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.00 | 5.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| PAOK | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.57 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 8.71 | 8.50 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.10 | 5.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martínez 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.80league 3.65
Red cards0.27league 0.20
Cards 5+56%league 40%
Fouls26.7league 28.6
Penalties0.30league 0.18
Home wins43%league 48%
PAOKNo previous matches with this referee.
AnderlechtNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PAOK2 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Anderlecht2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
PAOK10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
5
1
0-15
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 15 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.