UEFA Europa League Matchday 5 Thu, Nov 27 · 17:45 Stadio Toumbas, Thessaloníki
PAOK 10th · 7 pts · 4 played
1–1Full time
Brann 11th · 7 pts · 4 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

PAOK were clear favourites.

PAOK were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 24). PAOK had 20.9 days of rest, Brann 20.9 and had to travel 2,507 km.

Away travel2,507 kmRest days20.9 · 20.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
PAOK65%
Draw20%
Brann14%
Expected goals 2.17 – 0.92
PAOK64%
Draw21%
Brann15%
Expected goals 2.05 – 0.87
PAOK66%
Draw20%
Brann14%
Expected goals 2.17 – 0.91
PAOK58%
Draw23%
Brann19%
Expected goals 1.93 – 1.03
PAOK64%
Draw21%
Brann15%
Expected goals 2.05 – 0.88
Over 2.5 60% Both score 54% Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Thessaloníki)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann
  • Cards per match 4.5
  • Penalties per match 0.16
  • Matches 85

Team strength

PAOKBrann
55 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24
52 Current StrengthIn forecast 21
45 AttackIn forecast 21
55 DefenceIn forecast 30
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PAOK

Attack—
Defense risk—

Brann

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PAOKBrann
2.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
2.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.13
1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09
+0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.12
75% Scored inContext 75%
50% Clean sheetsContext 75%
13.25 ShotsContext 11.25
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67
45% On target shareContext 24%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.75
78% Box shareContext 67%
17% ConversionContext 11%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.50
13.00 Shots allowedContext 11.50
5.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50
2.75 BlocksContext 4.33
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25
78% Save rateContext 90%
48% PossessionIn forecast 47%
411 PassesContext 404
343 Accurate passesContext 321
83% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.93
12.25 FoulsContext 12.50
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.00
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.75
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games
2.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
2.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.13
1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09
+0.57 Goals minus xGContext +0.37
100% Scored inContext 80%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
11.90 ShotsContext 11.13
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.86
42% On target shareContext 38%
8.60 Shots in the boxContext 6.50
70% Box shareContext 59%
24% ConversionContext 15%
2.38 OffsidesContext 2.40
9.50 Shots allowedContext 12.00
4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.86
2.33 BlocksContext 3.29
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86
73% Save rateContext 74%
57% PossessionIn forecast 51%
469 PassesContext 436
388 Accurate passesContext 351
83% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.00 Team ratingContext 6.83
11.70 FoulsContext 12.50
12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.13
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PAOK
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Brann
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel2,507 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
PAOK Brann
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match20.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov20.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,507 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 10 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one1414.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PAOK Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1J. Pavlenka(G)
21A. Baba 5G. Michailidis 16T. Kędziora 3J. Kenny
8S. Meïté 22A. Bianco
11Taison 18L. Ivanušec 14A. Živković
7G. Giakoumakis
+6 more reported missing outside this XI
Brann Confirmed XI
4-3-3
1M. Dyngeland(G)
20V. Dragsnes 6J. Sery Larsen 3F. Knudsen 26E. Helland
19E. Guðmundsson 18J. Sørensen 10E. Kornvig
9N. Castro 29N. Holm 14U. Mathisen
+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
PAOK Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Brann Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • PAOK-0.3 pp
  • Draw+0.1 pp
  • Brann+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

PAOK · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-1-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00
Brann · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
0-1-1
Scored
0.50
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentPAOKBrann
Lille W 4–3 A L 1–2 A
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

PAOKBrannForecast
Scored per game 2.251.25
Conceded per game 1.500.50
Match goals 3.751.75 3.08
Over 1.5 75%50%
Over 2.5 75%50% 60%
Over 3.5 75%0%
Both teams scored 50%25% 54%
Clean sheets 50%75%
Failed to score 25%25%
Games44
PAOKBrannForecast
Scored per game 2.251.25
Conceded per game 1.500.50
Match goals 3.751.75 3.08
Over 1.5 75%50%
Over 2.5 75%50% 60%
Over 3.5 75%0%
Both teams scored 50%25% 54%
Clean sheets 50%75%
Failed to score 25%25%
Games44

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

PAOKBrannLeague
Corners
Corners won4.003.50
Corners conceded7.007.00
Match total11.0010.509.03
Over 8.567% 2/350% 2/4
Over 9.567% 2/350% 2/4
Over 10.567% 2/350% 2/4
Cards
Cards2.251.75
Opponent cards2.752.25
Match total5.004.004.23
Over 3.5100% 4/450% 2/4
Over 4.575% 3/425% 1/4
PAOKBrannLeague
Corners
Corners won3.503.25
Corners conceded4.885.75
Match total8.389.009.03
Over 8.525% 2/838% 3/8
Over 9.525% 2/838% 3/8
Over 10.525% 2/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards2.302.60
Opponent cards3.402.40
Match total5.705.004.23
Over 3.590% 9/1070% 7/10
Over 4.570% 7/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 85 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.27league 4.04
Red cards0.20league 0.17
Cards 5+48%league 43%
Fouls23.5league 24.8
Penalties0.16league 0.39
Home wins34%league 49%
PAOK5 with this referee
Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.6 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1
  • W19 Oct 25A · AEK Athens FC2–01
  • W6 Apr 25H · Olympiakos Piraeus2–14
  • D19 Jan 25A · Aris Thessalonikis0–01
  • L3 Oct 24H · FCSB0–12
  • W17 Aug 23H · HNK Hajduk Split3–03
Brann

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

PAOK4 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 2 46-60
3 2 61-75
1 1 76-90
Brann4 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
2 31-45
2 1 46-60
61-75
1 1 76-90
PAOK10 games · scored 28 · conceded 12
1 1 0-15
5 2 16-30
5 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
8 3 61-75
6 1 76-90
Brann10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
1 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

View all fixtures →
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