Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Auxerre were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 15). Absences weigh more on Paris FC. Paris FC had 5.9 days of rest, Auxerre 6.2 and had to travel 148 km.
Away travel148 kmRest days5.9 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Paris FC36%
Draw27%
Auxerre37%
Paris FC36%
Draw27%
Auxerre37%
Paris FC37%
Draw27%
Auxerre36%
Paris FC29%
Draw27%
Auxerre44%
Paris FC35%
Draw27%
Auxerre38%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 112
Team strength
Paris FC
Auxerre
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
46
AttackIn forecast
39
38
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCAuxerre
1.54
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.54
1.92
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
85%
Scored inContext
46%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
12.62
ShotsContext
10.31
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.31
32%
On target shareContext
32%
8.31
Shots in the boxContext
6.17
66%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
5%
2.73
OffsidesContext
2.71
11.00
Shots allowedContext
11.46
3.92
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.54
3.50
BlocksContext
2.73
2.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.31
65%
Save rateContext
73%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
504
PassesContext
366
435
Accurate passesContext
295
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.00
FoulsContext
13.23
11.15
Fouls sufferedContext
14.54
1.69
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.44
90%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.50
ShotsContext
10.20
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
28%
On target shareContext
28%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
68%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
5%
2.89
OffsidesContext
2.17
11.10
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.40
BlocksContext
2.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
71%
Save rateContext
72%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
510
PassesContext
362
437
Accurate passesContext
291
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.69
11.70
FoulsContext
12.90
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km409 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Auxerre
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel148 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 148 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 409 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
16Obed Nkambadio(G)
28T. De Smet
6Otávio
5M. Mbow
14H. Traoré
27M. Simon
17Adama Camara
4V. Marchetti
10I. Kebbal
11J. Krasso
7Alimami Gory
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
14G. Mensah
92C. Akpa
20S. Diomandé
27L. Sy
5K. Danois
17O. El Azzouzi
34R. Matondo
19D. Namaso
9S. Mara
10L. Sinayoko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Auxerre
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Auxerre+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
1.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.83
Auxerre · Away
0.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-5
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Rennes | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Monaco | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Lyon | D 3–3 H | D 0–0 H |
| Nantes | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Lorient | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Nice | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Strasbourg | L 2–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| Marseille | L 2–5 A | L 0–1 H |
| Angers | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 8 of 30 · 0.80 per game | 5 of 30 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.54 | 0.54 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.92 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 3.46 | 2.00 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 54% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 38% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 31% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 54% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Paris FC | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.00 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.77 | 4.77 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.15 | 4.46 | |
| Match total | 9.92 | 9.23 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 7/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 7/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 4/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.85 | 2.46 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.85 | 5.46 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 7/13 | 85% 11/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 5/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Paris FC | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.10 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.70 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 112 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.04league 3.79
Red cards0.27league 0.32
Cards 5+46%league 38%
Fouls22.3league 24.2
Penalties0.30league 0.50
Home wins53%league 51%
Paris FC2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 Sep 25H · Strasbourg2–31
- L17 Aug 25A · Angers0–11
Auxerre2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L4 Oct 25H · Lens1–24
- W24 Nov 24H · Angers1–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC13 games · scored 20 · conceded 25
3
3
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
8
76-90
Auxerre13 games · scored 7 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
6
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 5 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
