Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were clear favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 14). Paris FC had 5.1 days of rest, Lyon 3 and had to travel 395 km.
Away travel395 kmRest days5.1 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 3
Paris FC15%
Draw21%
Lyon64%
Paris FC15%
Draw22%
Lyon63%
Paris FC15%
Draw21%
Lyon64%
Paris FC11%
Draw18%
Lyon71%
Paris FC16%
Draw22%
Lyon63%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 80
Team strength
Paris FC
Lyon
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
46
AttackIn forecast
55
38
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCLyon
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.44
1.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
89%
Scored inContext
100%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
56%
13.22
ShotsContext
13.11
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
35%
On target shareContext
34%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.25
67%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.29
11.33
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
3.88
BlocksContext
4.75
2.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
59%
Save rateContext
65%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
534
PassesContext
473
470
Accurate passesContext
410
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.56
FoulsContext
15.33
10.89
Fouls sufferedContext
14.56
1.22
Yellow cardsContext
1.78
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
89%
Scored inContext
100%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
13.22
ShotsContext
13.70
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
35%
On target shareContext
32%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
67%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.33
Shots allowedContext
10.10
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.11
3.88
BlocksContext
4.00
2.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
59%
Save rateContext
75%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
534
PassesContext
512
470
Accurate passesContext
445
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.56
FoulsContext
14.10
10.89
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
1.22
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km358 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lyon
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel395 km586 km in 14d
Schedule load29%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 29 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Oct | 3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 395 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 358 km | 586 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
16Obed Nkambadio(G)
28T. De Smet
6Otávio
5M. Mbow
31Samir Sophian Chergui
17Adama Camara
33P. Lees-Melou
21M. Lopez
10I. Kebbal
9W. Geubbels
93N. Ikoné
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
39Mathys de Carvalho
23T. Morton
17Afonso Moreira
8C. Tolisso
7A. Karabec
10P. Šulc
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Lyon-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
1.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
Lyon · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Nice | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Strasbourg | L 2–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Metz | W 3–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Marseille | L 2–5 A | W 1–0 H |
| Angers | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 18 · 0.67 per game | 15 of 18 · 2.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 2.44 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 56% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 44% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 56% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Paris FC | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.44 | 2.30 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 40% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 10.89 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.89 | 2.56 | |
| Match total | 3.22 | 4.45 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Paris FC | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 8.80 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.89 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.22 | 4.30 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 3.81
Red cards0.21league 0.29
Cards 5+36%league 38%
Fouls24.6league 24.6
Penalties0.31league 0.53
Home wins43%league 54%
Paris FCNo previous matches with this referee.
Lyon8 with this referee
Record3-2-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against2 · 2
- L4 May 25H · Lens1–22
- W4 Jan 25H · Montpellier1–01
- D27 Oct 24H · Auxerre2–20
- W15 Mar 24A · Toulouse3–22
- W27 May 23H · Reims3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC9 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Lyon9 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
Paris FC9 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
