Paris FC
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Paris FC15.4%fair odds 6.50
Draw21.1%fair odds 4.74
Lyon63.5%fair odds 1.57
Expected goals0.94 – 2.09total 3.03
Likeliest score0–210.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lyon
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Paris FC ↓ · Lyon → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Paris FC goals, columns Lyon goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–210.6%9.43
- 1–110.0%10.02
- 1–29.9%10.09
- 0–19.6%10.38
- 0–37.4%13.52
- 1–36.9%14.46
- 0–05.3%18.70
- 2–24.6%21.57
- 2–14.4%22.56
- 1–04.0%24.82
Winning margin
1.3%
Paris FC by 3+
fair 75.42
3.9%
Paris FC by 2
fair 25.74
10.2%
Paris FC by 1
fair 9.84
21.1%
Draw
fair 4.74
23.4%
Lyon by 1
fair 4.28
19.4%
Lyon by 2
fair 5.14
20.7%
Lyon by 3+
fair 4.83
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Paris FC goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
Lyon goals
12%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC win | 15.4% | 15.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 21.1% | 21.9% | -0.8 pp |
| Lyon win | 63.5% | 62.6% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.3% | 55.3% | +3.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.7% | 51.7% | +2.1 pp |
| Expected goals Paris FC | 0.94 | 0.90 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Lyon | 2.09 | 2.00 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Paris FC win15.4%6.50
- Draw21.1%4.74
- Lyon win63.5%1.57
- Double chance Paris FC or draw36.5%2.74
- Double chance Paris FC or Lyon78.9%1.27
- Double chance Lyon or draw84.6%1.18
- Draw no bet Paris FC19.5%5.13
- Draw no bet Lyon80.5%1.24
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.0%1.23
- Over 2.558.3%1.72
- Over 3.535.9%2.79
- Over 4.518.9%5.28
- Under 1.519.0%5.26
- Under 2.541.7%2.40
- Under 3.564.1%1.56
Both teams to score
- Yes53.7%1.86
- No46.3%2.16
- Yes and over 2.543.8%2.28
- Paris FC win and yes8.4%11.93
- Draw and yes15.8%6.35
- Lyon win and yes29.6%3.38
Team goals
- Paris FC over 0.560.7%1.65
- Paris FC over 1.524.0%4.16
- Paris FC over 2.56.9%14.54
- Lyon over 0.587.7%1.14
- Lyon over 1.561.8%1.62
- Lyon over 2.534.8%2.87
- Paris FC clean sheet12.3%8.10
- Lyon clean sheet39.3%2.55
- Paris FC win to nil7.0%14.29
- Lyon win to nil33.9%2.95
Handicap
- Paris FC −1.55.2%19.19
- Paris FC −2.51.3%75.42
- Lyon +1.594.8%1.05
- Lyon +2.598.7%1.01
- Lyon −1.540.2%2.49
- Paris FC +1.559.8%1.67
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored85
Favourite won55.3%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.557
Over 2.5 called right57.6%
BTTS called right52.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 14 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 27 | 44.3% | 40.7% |
| 50–60% | 19 | 53.9% | 47.4% |
| 60–70% | 13 | 65.2% | 76.9% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 75.1% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 86.1% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 58 of 85 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6119 | 0.6010 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.6% | 40.5% |
| Favourite won | 44.8% | 46.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 58 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Lens 2–1 Marseille38·27·35
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 85 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.