Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Paris FC had 8 days of rest, Metz 7.8 and had to travel 278 km.
Away travel278 kmRest days8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Paris FC38%
Draw27%
Metz34%
Paris FC38%
Draw27%
Metz35%
Paris FC38%
Draw27%
Metz34%
Paris FC31%
Draw27%
Metz41%
Paris FC38%
Draw27%
Metz35%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceGael Angoula
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 22
Team strength
Paris FC
Metz
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
46
AttackIn forecast
11
38
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMetz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCMetz
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.00
3.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
0.47
1.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
50%
Scored inContext
0%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.50
ShotsContext
6.50
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
44%
On target shareContext
15%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
—
52%
Box shareContext
—
8%
ConversionContext
0%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.00
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
—
BlocksContext
2.50
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
38%
Save rateContext
58%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
485
PassesContext
417
433
Accurate passesContext
360
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.62
11.00
FoulsContext
15.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
70%
—
Clean sheetsContext
10%
—
ShotsContext
8.70
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
—
On target shareContext
37%
—
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
—
Box shareContext
68%
—
ConversionContext
14%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
—
Shots allowedContext
16.30
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
—
BlocksContext
4.00
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
—
Save rateContext
60%
—
PossessionIn forecast
34%
—
PassesContext
320
—
Accurate passesContext
243
—
Pass accuracyContext
76%
—
Team ratingContext
6.76
—
FoulsContext
13.20
—
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
—
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
—
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,850 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Metz
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel278 km765 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Metz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 278 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,850 km | 765 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
28T. De Smet
6Otávio
5M. Mbow
31Samir Sophian Chergui
17Adama Camara
4V. Marchetti
21M. Lopez
27M. Simon
9W. Geubbels
10I. Kebbal
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
15T. Yegbe
5J. Gbamin
38S. Sané
39K. Kouao
8B. Traoré
21B. Stambouli
9G. Abuashvili
10G. Hein
7G. Tsitaishvili
18Idrissa Gueye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Absences are shown before kick-off
Metz
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Metz+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
No home games yet this season.
Metz · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Paris FC | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 6.50 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Paris FC | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.20 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.50 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gael Angoula France · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.05league 3.35
Red cards0.18league 0.26
Cards 5+18%league 35%
Fouls21.4league 23.2
Penalties0.32league 0.48
Home wins50%league 61%
Paris FCNo previous matches with this referee.
Metz5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L19 May 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–22
- W10 Mar 24H · Clermont Foot1–01
- L3 Dec 23A · Lille0–20
- L1 Oct 23A · Toulouse0–30
- W27 Aug 23A · Clermont Foot1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC2 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Metz2 games · scored 0 · conceded 4
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Paris FC2 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 12 · conceded 23
1
6
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
