Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Nantes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 15). Absences weigh more on Nantes. Paris FC had 5.2 days of rest, Nantes 5 and had to travel 342 km.
Away travel342 kmRest days5.2 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 1
Paris FC36%
Draw27%
Nantes36%
Paris FC35%
Draw27%
Nantes38%
Paris FC35%
Draw27%
Nantes37%
Paris FC29%
Draw27%
Nantes44%
Paris FC35%
Draw27%
Nantes37%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 64
Team strength
Paris FC
Nantes
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
46
AttackIn forecast
24
38
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCNantes
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.63
1.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
0.73
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
88%
Scored inContext
38%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.13
ShotsContext
9.13
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.67
36%
On target shareContext
22%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.25
66%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.60
11.50
Shots allowedContext
16.50
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.00
BlocksContext
5.71
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.88
62%
Save rateContext
78%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
533
PassesContext
372
468
Accurate passesContext
301
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.75
FoulsContext
10.75
10.63
Fouls sufferedContext
12.88
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
88%
Scored inContext
50%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.13
ShotsContext
9.70
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
36%
On target shareContext
25%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
66%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.50
Shots allowedContext
14.90
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
4.00
BlocksContext
5.11
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
62%
Save rateContext
77%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
533
PassesContext
379
468
Accurate passesContext
310
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.75
FoulsContext
11.50
10.63
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km358 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nantes
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel342 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Nantes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 5Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 342 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 358 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
16Obed Nkambadio(G)
28T. De Smet
5M. Mbow
31Samir Sophian Chergui
14H. Traoré
4V. Marchetti
33P. Lees-Melou
27M. Simon
21M. Lopez
10I. Kebbal
11J. Krasso
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
66L. Leroux
78Tylel Tati
6C. Awaziem
98K. Amian
17D. Assoumani
5H. Kwon
80J. Mwanga
10M. Abline
19Y. El-Arabi
11B. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nantes
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Nantes-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Nantes · Away
0.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Nice | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Strasbourg | L 2–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Nantes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 0.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.88 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 1.75 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 38% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 25% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 63% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Paris FC | Nantes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 0.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.88 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 1.75 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 38% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 25% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 63% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Nantes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 10.63 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.13 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 3.01 | 3.63 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 13% 1/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Paris FC | Nantes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 10.20 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.13 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.01 | 3.70 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 13% 1/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 3.74
Red cards0.45league 0.32
Cards 5+47%league 35%
Fouls23.9league 24.5
Penalties0.36league 0.54
Home wins42%league 53%
Paris FCNo previous matches with this referee.
Nantes9 with this referee
Record3-1-5
Cards · opp.3.2 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 6
Reds4
- W2 Dec 23H · Nice1–03
- L1 Oct 23A · Rennes1–37
- D1 Sep 23H · Marseille1–11
- L20 May 23H · Montpellier0–34
- W5 Feb 23A · Ajaccio2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC8 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Nantes8 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Paris FC8 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
