Ligue 1 Gameweek 26 Sat, Apr 3 · 16:00 Stade Jean Bouin, Paris
Paris FC 3rd · 14 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 14 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel0 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Paris FC—%
Draw—%
Paris Saint Germain—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Paris)

Forecast from 19 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Paris FC and Paris Saint Germain. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Paris FCParis Saint Germain
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 89
46 AttackIn forecast 91
38 DefenceIn forecast 83
73 Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris FC

Attack—
Defense risk—

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris FCParis Saint Germain
1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29
2.11 xGVia Att/Def 2.65
1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16
-0.40 Goals minus xGContext -0.65
57% Scored inContext 100%
43% Clean sheetsContext 14%
14.43 ShotsContext 20.57
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.14
35% On target shareContext 35%
9.43 Shots in the boxContext 11.71
63% Box shareContext 56%
12% ConversionContext 10%
1.71 OffsidesContext 3.20
9.57 Shots allowedContext 10.86
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.14
3.00 BlocksContext 2.17
2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
71% Save rateContext 83%
52% PossessionIn forecast 68%
575 PassesContext 708
508 Accurate passesContext 637
88% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.84 Team ratingContext 7.03
13.71 FoulsContext 5.71
10.57 Fouls sufferedContext 11.29
2.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.77 xGVia Att/Def 2.37
1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
70% Scored inContext 100%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
14.40 ShotsContext 21.50
5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.80
35% On target shareContext 36%
9.70 Shots in the boxContext 12.50
65% Box shareContext 56%
13% ConversionContext 12%
2.10 OffsidesContext 3.33
9.90 Shots allowedContext 11.90
3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
2.67 BlocksContext 3.22
2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.14
69% Save rateContext 78%
50% PossessionIn forecast 67%
524 PassesContext 702
457 Accurate passesContext 632
87% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.83 Team ratingContext 7.07
12.40 FoulsContext 7.00
10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris FC
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km616 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 10 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Rennes4–31.3 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Lorient0–11.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Strasbourg2–11.5 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Lyon0–01.4 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Marseille3–20.8 xPts
Paris Saint Germain
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Strasbourg3–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Manchester City4–20.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Le Mans3–12.6 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Marseille2–12.0 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Stade Brestois 291–02.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Paris FC Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Ligue 1 2026-2027, 20 Mar14Ligue 1 2026-2027, 20 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways616 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris FC Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Rennes (H) 4–3, 18 Oct
1K. Trapp(G)
14H. Traoré 42D. Coppola 31Samir Sophian Chergui 17Adama Camara
33P. Lees-Melou 20M. Lopez
15L. Koleosho 7P. Pagis 10I. Kebbal
9L. Sinayoko
Paris Saint Germain Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Strasbourg (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
39M. Safonov(G)
12L. Digne 21L. Hernández 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery
4Beraldo 27Dro Fernández 87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia 9Ferran Torres 11M. Akliouche

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Paris FC Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Paris Saint Germain Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Paris FC · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
2.25
Conceded
1.00
Paris Saint Germain · Away 2.20points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
3-2-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentParis FCParis Saint Germain
Rennes W 4–3 H D 2–2 A
Strasbourg W 2–1 H W 3–1 A
Marseille W 3–2 A W 2–1 A
Points9 of 9 · 3.00 per game7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Paris FC wins0 draws1 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 17 May 2026Paris FC2–1Paris Saint Germain
  • 4 Jan 2026Paris Saint Germain2–1Paris FC

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Paris FCParis Saint GermainForecast
Scored per game 1.712.00
Conceded per game 1.001.29
Match goals 2.713.29
Over 1.5 57%86%
Over 2.5 57%86%
Over 3.5 29%57%
Both teams scored 43%86%
Clean sheets 43%14%
Failed to score 43%0%
Games77
Paris FCParis Saint GermainForecast
Scored per game 1.902.50
Conceded per game 1.001.40
Match goals 2.903.90
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 70%90%
Over 3.5 30%60%
Both teams scored 50%90%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 30%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Paris FCParis Saint GermainLeague
Corners
Corners won4.004.75
Corners conceded4.173.25
Match total8.178.009.63
Over 8.533% 2/650% 2/4
Over 9.517% 1/625% 1/4
Over 10.517% 1/60% 0/4
Cards
Cards2.291.00
Opponent cards1.572.43
Match total3.863.433.47
Over 3.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 4.543% 3/729% 2/7
Paris FCParis Saint GermainLeague
Corners
Corners won4.005.57
Corners conceded4.114.14
Match total8.119.719.63
Over 8.544% 4/971% 5/7
Over 9.533% 3/943% 3/7
Over 10.511% 1/929% 2/7
Cards
Cards2.001.00
Opponent cards1.202.30
Match total3.203.303.47
Over 3.530% 3/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Paris FC7 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
2 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
1 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 61-75
4 2 76-90
Paris Saint Germain7 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
5 2 61-75
6 1 76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3 1 0-15
4 1 16-30
1 31-45
3 2 46-60
1 4 61-75
7 2 76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 25 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
3 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
2 4 46-60
7 3 61-75
7 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Angers Monaco Apr 316:00 Lille Rennes Apr 316:00 Nice Lyon Apr 316:00 Strasbourg Toulouse Apr 316:00 Stade Brestois 29 Lorient Apr 316:00 Auxerre Lens Apr 316:00 LE Havre Estac Troyes Apr 316:00 Paris FC Paris Saint Germain Apr 316:00 Le Mans Marseille Apr 316:00