Paris Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Paris Saint Germain
2nd · 12 pts · 5 played
WWWWL
2–0Full time
Auxerre
11th · 6 pts · 5 played
WLLLW
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 28). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (69% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Paris Saint Germain had 5 days of rest, Auxerre 6.2 and had to travel 148 km.
Away travel148 kmRest days5 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Paris Saint Germain86%
Draw10%
Auxerre4%
Paris Saint Germain84%
Draw11%
Auxerre5%
Paris Saint Germain86%
Draw10%
Auxerre4%
Paris Saint Germain80%
Draw13%
Auxerre6%
Paris Saint Germain84%
Draw11%
Auxerre5%
Over 2.5 72%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceThomas Leonard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 76
Team strength
Paris Saint GermainAuxerre
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
91
AttackIn forecast
39
83
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris Saint GermainAuxerre
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
80%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.60
ShotsContext
9.40
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
35%
On target shareContext
36%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
50%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.00
OffsidesContext
—
8.20
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.00
BlocksContext
3.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
67%
Save rateContext
72%
73%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
801
PassesContext
343
742
Accurate passesContext
272
93%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.82
7.40
FoulsContext
13.20
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
0.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.40
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.80
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
90%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.40
ShotsContext
8.00
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
43%
On target shareContext
39%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
4.67
60%
Box shareContext
58%
17%
ConversionContext
15%
1.33
OffsidesContext
3.00
8.50
Shots allowedContext
12.60
2.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.13
BlocksContext
2.89
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
76%
Save rateContext
74%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
677
PassesContext
372
618
Accurate passesContext
302
91%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.21
Team ratingContext
6.87
8.70
FoulsContext
12.50
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
0.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris Saint Germain
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,321 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Auxerre
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel148 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris Saint Germain |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Sep | 6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 148 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,321 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
30L. Chevalier(G)
21L. Hernández
4Beraldo
6I. Zabarnyi
33W. Zaïre-Emery
24S. Mayulu
17Vitinha
19K. Lee
7K. Kvaratskhelia
9Gonçalo Ramos
49I. Mbaye
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
14G. Mensah
92C. Akpa
4F. Sierralta
13Telli Siwe
29M. Senaya
19D. Namaso
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
7J. Casimir
10L. Sinayoko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.12 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Auxerre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris Saint Germain-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Auxerre+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris Saint Germain · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Auxerre · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Paris Saint Germain | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | W 6–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Nantes | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Paris Saint Germain wins1 draws0 Auxerre wins
Goals per game2.50 – 0.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 17 May 2025Paris Saint Germain3–1Auxerre
- 6 Dec 2024Auxerre0–0Paris Saint Germain
- 21 May 2023Auxerre1–2Paris Saint Germain
- 13 Nov 2022Paris Saint Germain5–0Auxerre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris Saint Germain | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.00 | 3.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Paris Saint Germain | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.00 | 3.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris Saint Germain | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.80 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.40 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 6.20 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Paris Saint Germain | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.23 | 9.44 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.70 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 5.20 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 76 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.55league 3.75
Red cards0.28league 0.38
Cards 5+43%league 42%
Fouls24.1league 24.1
Penalties0.28league 0.54
Home wins37%league 65%
Paris Saint Germain3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 0.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D19 Aug 23A · Toulouse1–13
- L3 Jun 23H · Clermont Foot2–32
- W13 Nov 22H · Auxerre5–00
Auxerre4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L20 Apr 25A · Lille1–32
- D12 Feb 23A · Angers1–10
- L13 Nov 22A · Paris Saint Germain0–50
- L11 Sep 22A · Rennes0–51
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris Saint Germain5 games · scored 10 · conceded 4
4
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Auxerre5 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 28 · conceded 7
6
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
7
46-60
6
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
