Paris Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Paris Saint Germain
2nd · 48 pts · 20 played
WWWWW
5–0Full time
Marseille
4th · 39 pts · 20 played
WLWWD
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 59). Paris Saint Germain had 7 days of rest, Marseille 8.2 and had to travel 661 km.
Away travel661 kmRest days7 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Paris Saint Germain71%
Draw17%
Marseille11%
Paris Saint Germain69%
Draw19%
Marseille12%
Paris Saint Germain71%
Draw18%
Marseille11%
Paris Saint Germain64%
Draw20%
Marseille16%
Paris Saint Germain69%
Draw19%
Marseille12%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceWilly Delajod
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 103
Team strength
Paris Saint GermainMarseille
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
91
AttackIn forecast
48
83
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris Saint GermainMarseille
2.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.60
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
90%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.65
ShotsContext
14.10
6.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.65
39%
On target shareContext
40%
9.75
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
58%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.47
8.25
Shots allowedContext
9.35
3.35
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.63
BlocksContext
2.94
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
72%
Save rateContext
72%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
724
PassesContext
572
663
Accurate passesContext
513
92%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.01
9.90
FoulsContext
12.15
8.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.35
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.95
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.80
ShotsContext
14.40
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
37%
On target shareContext
39%
11.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
66%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.63
8.20
Shots allowedContext
9.40
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.44
BlocksContext
2.89
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
74%
Save rateContext
56%
67%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
672
PassesContext
560
607
Accurate passesContext
497
90%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.00
FoulsContext
11.30
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
0.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris Saint Germain
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km794 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Marseille
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel661 km1,321 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris Saint Germain |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 8.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 661 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 794 km | 1,321 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
39M. Safonov(G)
25Nuno Mendes
51W. Pacho
5Marquinhos
33W. Zaïre-Emery
87João Neves
17Vitinha
24S. Mayulu
29B. Barcola
10M. Dembélé
14D. Doué
Marseille
Confirmed XI
12J. de Lange(G)
33Emerson
32F. Medina
5L. Balerdi
28B. Pavard
22T. Weah
10M. Greenwood
27Q. Timber
23P. Højbjerg
11E. Nwaneri
9A. Gouiri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Marseille
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris Saint Germain+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Marseille-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris Saint Germain · Home
2.78points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-0
- Scored
- 2.44
- Conceded
- 0.44
Marseille · Away
1.60points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-4
- Scored
- 1.90
- Conceded
- 1.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Paris Saint Germain | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 AD 3–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lille | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 AW 5–2 H |
| Metz | W 3–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| Rennes | W 5–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Monaco | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | W 3–0 H | W 6–2 H |
| Lyon | W 3–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Nice | W 1–0 H | W 5–1 A |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Lens | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Toulouse | W 6–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | W 5–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Nantes | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 48 of 57 · 2.53 per game | 36 of 57 · 1.89 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
7 Paris Saint Germain wins1 draws1 Marseille wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.33
Over 2.556%
Both scored22%
Clean sheets67% · 22%
- 22 Sep 2025Marseille1–0Paris Saint Germain
- 16 Mar 2025Paris Saint Germain3–1Marseille
- 27 Oct 2024Marseille0–3Paris Saint Germain
- 31 Mar 2024Marseille0–2Paris Saint Germain
- 24 Sep 2023Paris Saint Germain4–0Marseille
- 26 Feb 2023Marseille0–3Paris Saint Germain
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris Saint Germain | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.15 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.95 | 3.40 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 65% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Paris Saint Germain | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.30 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris Saint Germain | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.28 | 4.79 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 3.74 | |
| Match total | 8.61 | 8.53 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 9/18 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 4/18 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 2/18 | 21% 4/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.05 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.80 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 4/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 2/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Paris Saint Germain | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 8.50 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.20 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Willy Delajod France · 103 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.51league 3.65
Red cards0.26league 0.31
Cards 5+38%league 36%
Fouls24.6league 24.2
Penalties0.41league 0.41
Home wins43%league 49%
Paris Saint Germain16 with this referee
Record9-4-3
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 3
- D29 Oct 25A · Lorient1–12
- L25 Apr 25H · Nice1–33
- W15 Feb 25A · Toulouse1–00
- W2 Nov 24H · Lens1–01
- W16 Aug 24A · LE Havre4–10
Marseille14 with this referee
Record6-3-5
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- W8 Nov 25H · Stade Brestois 293–00
- W10 May 25A · LE Havre3–12
- L29 Mar 25A · Reims1–30
- D14 Dec 24H · Lille1–12
- L29 Sep 24A · Strasbourg0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris Saint Germain20 games · scored 43 · conceded 16
6
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
8
3
31-45
7
4
46-60
6
1
61-75
11
4
76-90
Marseille20 games · scored 46 · conceded 22
5
2
0-15
9
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
9
1
61-75
12
10
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
3
5
0-15
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
