Paris Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 55). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Monaco. Paris Saint Germain had 7 days of rest, Monaco 5 and had to travel 689 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel689 kmRest days7 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Paris Saint Germain70%
Draw17%
Monaco12%
Paris Saint Germain71%
Draw18%
Monaco11%
Paris Saint Germain70%
Draw18%
Monaco13%
Paris Saint Germain63%
Draw20%
Monaco17%
Paris Saint Germain68%
Draw19%
Monaco13%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
24°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 13 km/h
- Humidity 65%
Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 108
Team strength
Paris Saint Germain
Monaco
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
91
AttackIn forecast
45
83
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris Saint GermainMonaco
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
18.50
ShotsContext
13.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
24%
On target shareContext
46%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
43%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
—
OffsidesContext
3.00
9.00
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
1.00
BlocksContext
4.50
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
50%
Save rateContext
71%
71%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
773
PassesContext
394
701
Accurate passesContext
330
91%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.38
6.50
FoulsContext
10.50
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
100%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.60
ShotsContext
13.10
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
31%
On target shareContext
37%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
60%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.38
10.40
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.63
BlocksContext
4.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
68%
Save rateContext
61%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
655
PassesContext
470
586
Accurate passesContext
397
90%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.92
7.60
FoulsContext
12.60
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris Saint Germain
DD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km409 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 2 pts vs 2.2 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris Saint Germain |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 28 Aug | 5Ligue 1 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 689 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 409 km | 1,697 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
39M. Safonov(G)
33W. Zaïre-Emery
51W. Pacho
5Marquinhos
2A. Hakimi
8Fabián Ruiz
17Vitinha
87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia
11M. Akliouche
14D. Doué
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
15E. Dier
72S. Sané
2Vanderson
6D. Zakaria
8M. Camara
17S. Idumbo
10A. Golovin
28M. Coulibaly
29P. Brunner
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris Saint Germain
Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris Saint Germain+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Monaco-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris Saint Germain · Home
No home games yet this season.
Monaco · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
4 Paris Saint Germain wins3 draws3 Monaco wins
Goals per game2.10 – 1.70
Over 2.570%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 6 Mar 2026Paris Saint Germain1–3Monaco
- 25 Feb 2026Paris Saint Germain2–2Monaco
- 17 Feb 2026Monaco2–3Paris Saint Germain
- 29 Nov 2025Monaco1–0Paris Saint Germain
- 7 Feb 2025Paris Saint Germain4–1Monaco
- 18 Dec 2024Monaco2–4Paris Saint Germain
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris Saint Germain | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 1.50 | 3.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Paris Saint Germain | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris Saint Germain | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | — | 6.50 | |
| Match total | — | 11.00 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | — | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | — | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | — | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.50 | 3.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Paris Saint Germain | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 6.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.13 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 9.67 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.70 | 3.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 108 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 3.05
Red cards0.27league 0.15
Cards 5+35%league 20%
Fouls23.9league 22.8
Penalties0.32league 0.45
Home wins41%league 35%
Paris Saint Germain15 with this referee
Record8-3-4
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- W10 May 26H · Stade Brestois 291–00
- L19 Apr 26H · Lyon1–25
- W16 Jan 26H · Lille3–00
- L22 Sep 25A · Marseille0–10
- D6 Oct 24A · Nice1–12
Monaco11 with this referee
Record7-2-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against4 · 0
Reds2
- L3 Jan 26H · Lyon1–34
- W29 Oct 25A · Nantes5–35
- W3 May 25A · Saint Etienne3–10
- W29 Mar 25H · Nice2–12
- L17 Jan 25A · Montpellier1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris Saint Germain2 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Monaco2 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
4
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
5
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
