Paris Saint Germain
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Paris Saint Germain69.9%fair odds 1.43
Draw18.2%fair odds 5.49
Monaco11.9%fair odds 8.38
Expected goals2.37 – 0.89total 3.26
Likeliest score2–010.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Monaco
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Paris Saint Germain ↓ · Monaco → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Paris Saint Germain goals, columns Monaco goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.8%9.27
- 2–19.6%10.42
- 1–08.7%11.53
- 3–08.5%11.73
- 1–18.5%11.73
- 3–17.6%13.19
- 4–05.1%19.79
- 4–14.5%22.26
- 0–04.3%23.42
- 2–24.3%23.44
Winning margin
26.9%
Paris Saint Germain by 3+
fair 3.72
20.7%
Paris Saint Germain by 2
fair 4.84
22.3%
Paris Saint Germain by 1
fair 4.48
18.2%
Draw
fair 5.49
8.1%
Monaco by 1
fair 12.35
2.9%
Monaco by 2
fair 34.37
0.9%
Monaco by 3+
fair 108.34
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
Paris Saint Germain goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
22%4+
Monaco goals
41%0
37%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain win | 69.9% | 67.7% | +2.2 pp |
| Draw | 18.2% | 19.5% | -1.3 pp |
| Monaco win | 11.9% | 12.8% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.2% | 59.5% | +3.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.8% | 52.0% | +1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Paris Saint Germain | 2.37 | 2.22 | +0.15 |
| Expected goals Monaco | 0.89 | 0.86 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Paris Saint Germain win69.9%1.43
- Draw18.2%5.49
- Monaco win11.9%8.38
- Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw88.1%1.14
- Double chance Paris Saint Germain or Monaco81.8%1.22
- Double chance Monaco or draw30.1%3.32
- Draw no bet Paris Saint Germain85.4%1.17
- Draw no bet Monaco14.6%6.86
Goals
- Over 0.595.7%1.04
- Over 1.584.1%1.19
- Over 2.563.2%1.58
- Over 3.541.1%2.43
- Over 4.523.0%4.35
- Under 1.515.9%6.28
- Under 2.536.8%2.72
- Under 3.558.9%1.70
Both teams to score
- Yes53.8%1.86
- No46.2%2.17
- Yes and over 2.545.3%2.21
- Paris Saint Germain win and yes33.0%3.03
- Draw and yes13.9%7.18
- Monaco win and yes6.9%14.59
Team goals
- Paris Saint Germain over 0.590.7%1.10
- Paris Saint Germain over 1.568.5%1.46
- Paris Saint Germain over 2.542.3%2.37
- Monaco over 0.558.9%1.70
- Monaco over 1.522.4%4.47
- Monaco over 2.56.1%16.37
- Paris Saint Germain clean sheet41.1%2.43
- Monaco clean sheet9.3%10.70
- Paris Saint Germain win to nil36.8%2.72
- Monaco win to nil5.1%19.70
Handicap
- Paris Saint Germain −1.547.6%2.10
- Paris Saint Germain −2.526.9%3.72
- Monaco +1.552.4%1.91
- Monaco +2.573.1%1.37
- Monaco −1.53.8%26.09
- Paris Saint Germain +1.596.2%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored20
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result38.2%
1X2 Brier0.636
Over 2.5 called right65.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 38.5% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 10 | 45.5% | 60.0% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 55.0% | 25.0% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.2% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 11 of 20 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6701 | 0.6578 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.0% | 37.0% |
| Favourite won | 45.5% | 45.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 11 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 20 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.