Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes – 22 Apr 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 26 Wed, Apr 22 · 18:00 Parc des Princes, Paris

Paris Saint Germain 1st · 63 pts · 28 played WLWWL

3–0Full time

Nantes 17th · 20 pts · 29 played LLDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nantes. Paris Saint Germain had 2.9 days of rest, Nantes 3.1 and had to travel 342 km.

Away travel342 kmRest days2.9 · 3.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Paris Saint Germain90%

Draw8%

Nantes3%

Expected goals 3.45 – 0.53

Paris Saint Germain90%

Draw8%

Nantes3%

Expected goals 3.44 – 0.52

Paris Saint Germain89%

Draw8%

Nantes3%

Expected goals 3.36 – 0.52

Paris Saint Germain86%

Draw10%

Nantes4%

Expected goals 3.08 – 0.60

Paris Saint Germain89%

Draw9%

Nantes3%

Expected goals 3.28 – 0.53

Over 2.5 76% Both score 40% Likeliest score 3–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paris)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceClement Turpin

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 140

Team strength

Paris Saint Germain

Nantes

89 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 19

91 AttackIn forecast 24

83 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris Saint Germain

Nantes

2.21 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.86

0.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.59

1.91 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

0.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

93% Scored inContext 59%

50% Clean sheetsContext 21%

17.36 ShotsContext 10.17

6.54 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.22

38% On target shareContext 30%

11.04 Shots in the boxContext 6.54

63% Box shareContext 61%

13% ConversionContext 9%

1.82 OffsidesContext 1.75

7.96 Shots allowedContext 12.97

3.21 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

2.68 BlocksContext 4.08

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.23

69% Save rateContext 68%

69% PossessionIn forecast 43%

715 PassesContext 349

654 Accurate passesContext 278

92% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.04 Team ratingContext 6.75

9.50 FoulsContext 12.28

9.25 Fouls sufferedContext 13.79

1.04 Yellow cardsContext 2.07

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 28 and 29 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.05 xGVia Att/Def 0.95

0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

+0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

100% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.30 ShotsContext 10.90

6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

41% On target shareContext 28%

10.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.89

67% Box shareContext 69%

15% ConversionContext 6%

2.22 OffsidesContext 1.75

9.50 Shots allowedContext 9.40

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.25 BlocksContext 2.88

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

77% Save rateContext 67%

67% PossessionIn forecast 41%

667 PassesContext 330

602 Accurate passesContext 260

90% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.76

8.90 FoulsContext 13.50

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70

0.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris Saint Germain

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nantes

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel342 km780 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Paris Saint Germain	Nantes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Apr	3.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	342 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	780 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

39M. Safonov(G)

33W. Zaïre-Emery 6I. Zabarnyi 5Marquinhos 2A. Hakimi

27Dro Fernández 4Beraldo 87João Neves

7K. Kvaratskhelia 10M. Dembélé 14D. Doué

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Nantes Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1A. Lopes(G)

27D. Machado 3N. Cozza 2Ali Yusuf 24F. Guilbert 22M. Acapandié

66L. Leroux 28I. Sissoko 8J. Lepenant

10M. Abline 31M. Abdalla

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Paris Saint Germain Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nantes Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.13 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Paris Saint Germain+0.6 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Nantes-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Paris Saint Germain · Home 2.43points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 11-1-2
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 0.71

Nantes · Away 0.79points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-7
Scored: 0.71
Conceded: 1.36

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Paris Saint Germain	Nantes
Lyon	L 1–2 HW 3–2 A	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Toulouse	W 3–1 HW 6–3 A	D 2–2 A
Nice	W 4–0 AW 1–0 H	L 1–4 HL 0–1 A
Monaco	L 1–3 HL 0–1 A	L 1–3 AL 3–5 H
LE Havre	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Metz	W 3–0 HW 3–2 A	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H
Rennes	L 1–3 AW 5–0 H	D 2–2 H
Marseille	W 5–0 HL 0–1 A	W 2–0 A
Strasbourg	W 2–1 AD 3–3 H	L 2–3 HL 0–1 A
Auxerre	W 1–0 AW 2–0 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Lille	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
Paris FC	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A
Lorient	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Stade Brestois 29	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A
Lens	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 H
Angers	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 HL 1–4 A
Points	60 of 81 · 2.22 per game	20 of 84 · 0.71 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

6 Paris Saint Germain wins2 draws1 Nantes wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.556% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

17 Aug 2025Nantes0–1Paris Saint Germain
22 Apr 2025Nantes1–1Paris Saint Germain
30 Nov 2024Paris Saint Germain1–1Nantes
17 Feb 2024Nantes0–2Paris Saint Germain
9 Dec 2023Paris Saint Germain2–1Nantes
4 Mar 2023Paris Saint Germain4–2Nantes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Paris Saint Germain	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	2.21	0.86
Conceded per game	0.89	1.59
Match goals	3.11	2.45	3.98
Over 1.5	75%	66%
Over 2.5	61%	41%	76%
Over 3.5	36%	24%
Both teams scored	43%	48%	40%
Clean sheets	50%	21%
Failed to score	7%	41%
Games	28	29

	Paris Saint Germain	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	0.70
Conceded per game	1.00	1.20
Match goals	3.20	1.90	3.98
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	80%	30%	76%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	40%
Clean sheets	50%	30%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Paris Saint Germain	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	5.58	3.15
Corners conceded	3.15	5.52
Match total	8.73	8.67	9.15
Over 8.5	46% 12/26	59% 16/27
Over 9.5	27% 7/26	41% 11/27
Over 10.5	15% 4/26	37% 10/27
Cards
Cards	1.07	2.17
Opponent cards	1.68	2.34
Match total	2.75	4.51	3.95
Over 3.5	25% 7/28	72% 21/29
Over 4.5	11% 3/28	45% 13/29

	Paris Saint Germain	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.22
Corners conceded	3.90	4.44
Match total	8.90	7.66	9.15
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	0.80	2.90
Opponent cards	2.00	2.60
Match total	2.80	5.50	3.95
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Clement Turpin France · 140 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.24league 3.66

Red cards0.25league 0.27

Cards 5+29%league 36%

Fouls23.0league 23.8

Penalties0.34league 0.36

Home wins39%league 47%

Paris Saint Germain14 with this referee

Record8-3-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.9 Pens for · against3 · 1 Reds3

L29 Nov 25A · Monaco0–11
D17 Oct 25H · Strasbourg3–32
W16 Mar 25H · Marseille3–11
W7 Feb 25H · Monaco4–11
W14 Sep 24H · Stade Brestois 293–12

Nantes9 with this referee

Record4-4-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.2 Pens for · against2 · 1

W17 May 25H · Montpellier3–03
L9 Nov 24A · Lens2–30
D4 May 24A · Stade Brestois 290–02
W3 Jun 23H · Angers1–01
D9 Apr 23H · Monaco2–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.