Paris Saint Germain
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Paris Saint Germain
1st · 63 pts · 28 played
WLWWL
3–0Full time
Nantes
17th · 20 pts · 29 played
LLDDD
Paris Saint Germain89.9%fair odds 1.11
Draw7.6%fair odds 13.23
Nantes2.6%fair odds 38.71
Expected goals3.45 – 0.53total 3.98
Likeliest score3–012.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Nantes
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Paris Saint Germain ↓ · Nantes → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Paris Saint Germain goals, columns Nantes goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–012.8%7.82
- 2–011.1%9.01
- 4–011.0%9.06
- 5–07.6%13.12
- 3–16.8%14.73
- 1–06.2%16.01
- 2–15.9%16.96
- 4–15.9%17.06
- 6–04.4%22.79
- 5–14.0%24.70
Winning margin
56.0%
Paris Saint Germain by 3+
fair 1.79
19.6%
Paris Saint Germain by 2
fair 5.09
14.2%
Paris Saint Germain by 1
fair 7.02
7.6%
Draw
fair 13.23
2.0%
Nantes by 1
fair 49.09
0.5%
Nantes by 2
fair 215.32
0.1%
Nantes by 3+
fair 1,221.97
Goal distribution
Total goals
2%0
7%1
15%2
20%3
20%4
37%5+
Paris Saint Germain goals
3%0
11%1
19%2
22%3
45%4+
Nantes goals
59%0
31%1
8%2
1%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain win | 89.9% | 88.5% | +1.4 pp |
| Draw | 7.6% | 8.5% | -1.0 pp |
| Nantes win | 2.6% | 3.0% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 75.9% | 73.3% | +2.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 40.1% | 39.9% | +0.2 pp |
| Expected goals Paris Saint Germain | 3.45 | 3.28 | +0.17 |
| Expected goals Nantes | 0.53 | 0.53 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Paris Saint Germain win89.9%1.11
- Draw7.6%13.23
- Nantes win2.6%38.71
- Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw97.4%1.03
- Double chance Paris Saint Germain or Nantes92.4%1.08
- Double chance Nantes or draw10.1%9.86
- Draw no bet Paris Saint Germain97.2%1.03
- Draw no bet Nantes2.8%35.78
Goals
- Over 0.598.0%1.02
- Over 1.590.9%1.10
- Over 2.575.9%1.32
- Over 3.556.3%1.78
- Over 4.536.8%2.72
- Under 1.59.1%10.99
- Under 2.524.1%4.16
- Under 3.543.7%2.29
Both teams to score
- Yes40.1%2.50
- No59.9%1.67
- Yes and over 2.536.5%2.74
- Paris Saint Germain win and yes33.1%3.02
- Draw and yes5.5%18.12
- Nantes win and yes1.5%68.48
Team goals
- Paris Saint Germain over 0.596.8%1.03
- Paris Saint Germain over 1.585.9%1.16
- Paris Saint Germain over 2.567.0%1.49
- Nantes over 0.541.2%2.43
- Nantes over 1.510.0%10.03
- Nantes over 2.51.7%59.36
- Paris Saint Germain clean sheet58.8%1.70
- Nantes clean sheet3.2%31.59
- Paris Saint Germain win to nil56.8%1.76
- Nantes win to nil1.1%89.04
Handicap
- Paris Saint Germain −1.575.6%1.32
- Paris Saint Germain −2.556.0%1.79
- Nantes +1.524.4%4.10
- Nantes +2.544.0%2.27
- Nantes −1.50.5%183.06
- Paris Saint Germain +1.599.5%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored267
Favourite won54.7%
Avg chance given to result41.9%
1X2 Brier0.584
Over 2.5 called right55.1%
BTTS called right53.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 41 | 37.8% | 51.2% |
| 40–50% | 84 | 44.9% | 46.4% |
| 50–60% | 64 | 54.2% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 42 | 64.4% | 69.0% |
| 70–80% | 26 | 74.0% | 65.4% |
| 80%+ | 10 | 86.5% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 213 of 267 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5981 | 0.5862 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.2% | 41.2% |
| Favourite won | 52.1% | 53.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 213 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 267 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.