Paris Saint Germain vs Slovan Bratislava – 9 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 9 · 20:00 Parc des Princes, Paris

Paris Saint Germain

6–1Full time

Slovan Bratislava

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Slovan Bratislava. Paris Saint Germain had 5 days of rest, Slovan Bratislava 14 and had to travel 1,088 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,088 kmRest days5 · 14Matches / 14d2 · 1

Paris Saint Germain87%

Draw9%

Slovan Bratislava4%

Expected goals 3.25 – 0.64

Paris Saint Germain86%

Draw9%

Slovan Bratislava4%

Expected goals 3.11 – 0.58

Paris Saint Germain87%

Draw9%

Slovan Bratislava4%

Expected goals 3.25 – 0.65

Paris Saint Germain82%

Draw12%

Slovan Bratislava6%

Expected goals 2.90 – 0.72

Paris Saint Germain85%

Draw10%

Slovan Bratislava5%

Expected goals 3.06 – 0.63

Over 2.5 75% Both score 46% Likeliest score 3–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paris)

19°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 11 km/h
Humidity 47%

RefereeMykola Balakin

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 59

Team strength

Paris Saint Germain

Slovan Bratislava

87 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

91 AttackIn forecast 18

83 DefenceIn forecast 22

36 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Slovan Bratislava

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris Saint Germain

Slovan Bratislava

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 0.88

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

+0.37 Goals minus xGContext +0.52

100% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

17.10 ShotsContext 11.33

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

30% On target shareContext 35%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.67

57% Box shareContext 70%

11% ConversionContext 10%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.40 Shots allowedContext 14.67

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.83

2.86 BlocksContext 3.83

3.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

68% Save rateContext 72%

62% PossessionIn forecast 47%

649 PassesContext 426

579 Accurate passesContext 344

89% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.78

8.20 FoulsContext 12.14

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.43

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris Saint Germain DDL

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km409 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 36 · 2 pts vs 3.7 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected

L4 SepH · Monaco1–22.2 xPts
D28 AugA · Lille2–21.8 xPts
D23 AugA · Rennes2–21.9 xPts

Slovan Bratislava

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,088 km510 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Paris Saint Germain	Slovan Bratislava
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Ligue 1 2026-2027, 4 Sep	14UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 26 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,088 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	409 km	510 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4	35

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

39M. Safonov(G)

25Nuno Mendes 51W. Pacho 6I. Zabarnyi 2A. Hakimi

8Fabián Ruiz 17Vitinha 27Dro Fernández

9Ferran Torres 10M. Dembélé 11M. Akliouche

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Slovan Bratislava Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

71D. Takáč(G)

57Sandro Cruz 15S. Marković 12K. Bajrič 28C. Blackman

3P. Pokorný

21Suleiman Camara 5R. Ibrahim 70C. Martinez 11T. Barseghyan

99A. Šporar

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Paris Saint Germain Absences are shown before kick-off

Slovan Bratislava Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Paris Saint Germain+0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Slovan Bratislava+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Paris Saint Germain · Home No home games yet this season.

Slovan Bratislava · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Paris Saint Germain	Slovan Bratislava	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.89
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	75%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	46%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Paris Saint Germain	Slovan Bratislava	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.67
Conceded per game	1.20	0.67
Match goals	3.00	2.33	3.89
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	33%	75%
Over 3.5	30%	0%
Both teams scored	60%	67%	46%
Clean sheets	40%	33%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	10	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Paris Saint Germain	Slovan Bratislava	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.13
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.88
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Paris Saint Germain	Slovan Bratislava	League
Corners
Corners won	6.86	6.40
Corners conceded	3.00	4.40
Match total	9.86	10.80	10.13
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	60% 3/5
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.20
Opponent cards	1.30	2.90
Match total	2.70	5.10	3.88
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mykola Balakin 59 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.93league 3.75

Red cards0.20league 0.13

Cards 5+41%league 25%

Fouls22.8league 24.9

Penalties0.27league 0.25

Home wins29%league 63%

Paris Saint Germain

No previous matches with this referee.

Slovan Bratislava

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.