Paris Saint Germain vs Strasbourg – 17 Oct 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 Fri, Oct 17 · 19:45 Parc des Princes, Paris

Paris Saint Germain 1st · 16 pts · 7 played WWLWD

3–3Full time

Strasbourg 3rd · 15 pts · 7 played LWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 49). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (66% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Paris Saint Germain had 12 days of rest, Strasbourg 12.1 and had to travel 397 km.

Away travel397 kmRest days12 · 12.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Paris Saint Germain77%

Draw15%

Strasbourg8%

Expected goals 2.62 – 0.75

Paris Saint Germain75%

Draw16%

Strasbourg9%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.73

Paris Saint Germain77%

Draw15%

Strasbourg8%

Expected goals 2.62 – 0.75

Paris Saint Germain70%

Draw18%

Strasbourg11%

Expected goals 2.34 – 0.84

Paris Saint Germain75%

Draw16%

Strasbourg9%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.73

Over 2.5 66% Both score 49% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paris)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceClement Turpin

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 121

Team strength

Paris Saint Germain

Strasbourg

89 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

91 AttackIn forecast 40

83 DefenceIn forecast 37

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Strasbourg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris Saint Germain

Strasbourg

1.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.44 xGVia Att/Def 1.87

0.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

+0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

86% Scored inContext 100%

57% Clean sheetsContext 57%

15.57 ShotsContext 11.14

5.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.71

37% On target shareContext 42%

8.14 Shots in the boxContext 8.29

52% Box shareContext 75%

12% ConversionContext 18%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.86

8.86 Shots allowedContext 10.29

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.83

3.60 BlocksContext 3.00

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

67% Save rateContext 74%

71% PossessionIn forecast 52%

756 PassesContext 506

697 Accurate passesContext 445

92% Pass accuracyContext 88%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.93

9.43 FoulsContext 11.29

9.43 Fouls sufferedContext 12.57

0.57 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.75

0.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

+0.58 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

90% Scored inContext 90%

60% Clean sheetsContext 50%

16.80 ShotsContext 11.20

6.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

40% On target shareContext 44%

10.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.78

59% Box shareContext 74%

14% ConversionContext 17%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.80

8.90 Shots allowedContext 11.40

2.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.38 BlocksContext 3.22

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

74% Save rateContext 69%

67% PossessionIn forecast 52%

697 PassesContext 505

638 Accurate passesContext 445

92% Pass accuracyContext 88%

7.12 Team ratingContext 6.93

9.80 FoulsContext 11.30

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

0.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris Saint Germain

Rest12 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km409 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Strasbourg

Rest12.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel397 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Paris Saint Germain	Strasbourg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Oct	12.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	397 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	409 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30L. Chevalier(G)

21L. Hernández 4Beraldo 6I. Zabarnyi 24S. Mayulu

14D. Doué 33W. Zaïre-Emery 19K. Lee

29B. Barcola 9Gonçalo Ramos 49I. Mbaye

Strasbourg Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

39M. Penders(G)

3B. Chilwell 24L. Høgsberg 6I. Doukouré

42A. Ouattara 29S. El Mourabet 32V. Barco 22G. Doué

7Diego Moreira 19J. Enciso

9J. Panichelli

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Paris Saint Germain Absences are shown before kick-off

Strasbourg Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Paris Saint Germain+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Strasbourg+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Paris Saint Germain · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 0.00

Strasbourg · Away 2.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Paris Saint Germain	Strasbourg
Marseille	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
Angers	W 1–0 H	W 5–0 H
Nantes	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Paris Saint Germain wins2 draws1 Strasbourg wins

Goals per game2.50 – 1.50 Over 2.588% Both scored88% Clean sheets13% · 0%

3 May 2025Strasbourg2–1Paris Saint Germain
19 Oct 2024Paris Saint Germain4–2Strasbourg
2 Feb 2024Strasbourg1–2Paris Saint Germain
21 Oct 2023Paris Saint Germain3–0Strasbourg
27 May 2023Strasbourg1–1Paris Saint Germain
28 Dec 2022Paris Saint Germain2–1Strasbourg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Paris Saint Germain	Strasbourg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.86	2.00
Conceded per game	0.71	1.00
Match goals	2.57	3.00	3.38
Over 1.5	57%	57%
Over 2.5	14%	57%	66%
Over 3.5	14%	43%
Both teams scored	29%	43%	49%
Clean sheets	57%	57%
Failed to score	14%	0%
Games	7	7

	Paris Saint Germain	Strasbourg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.86	2.00
Conceded per game	0.71	1.00
Match goals	2.57	3.00	3.38
Over 1.5	57%	57%
Over 2.5	14%	57%	66%
Over 3.5	14%	43%
Both teams scored	29%	43%	49%
Clean sheets	57%	57%
Failed to score	14%	0%
Games	7	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Paris Saint Germain	Strasbourg	League
Corners
Corners won	5.17	3.86
Corners conceded	3.83	4.43
Match total	9.00	8.29	9.47
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	29% 2/7
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	0.57	2.29
Opponent cards	1.57	2.14
Match total	2.14	4.43	4.08
Over 3.5	14% 1/7	100% 7/7
Over 4.5	0% 0/7	29% 2/7

	Paris Saint Germain	Strasbourg	League
Corners
Corners won	5.56	4.00
Corners conceded	3.78	4.50
Match total	9.34	8.50	9.47
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	0.80	2.60
Opponent cards	2.00	2.30
Match total	2.80	4.90	4.08
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Clement Turpin France · 121 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.20league 3.73

Red cards0.23league 0.33

Cards 5+28%league 37%

Fouls23.2league 24.5

Penalties0.35league 0.51

Home wins41%league 54%

Paris Saint Germain12 with this referee

Record8-2-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.7 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds3

W16 Mar 25H · Marseille3–11
W7 Feb 25H · Monaco4–11
W14 Sep 24H · Stade Brestois 293–12
D28 Jan 24H · Stade Brestois 292–25
L15 Sep 23H · Nice2–32

Strasbourg13 with this referee

Record5-5-3 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds3

L10 May 25A · Angers1–22
W6 Apr 25A · Reims1–03
D23 Feb 25H · Stade Brestois 290–03
L10 Mar 24H · Monaco0–11
W20 Dec 23H · Lille2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.