Parma vs Atalanta – 30 Aug 2025

Serie A Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 30 · 17:30 Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma

Parma 18th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–1Full time

Atalanta 10th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were slight favourites.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 33). Atalanta usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Parma had 5.9 days of rest, Atalanta 5.9 and had to travel 112 km.

Away travel112 kmRest days5.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Parma22%

Draw26%

Atalanta52%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.59

Parma22%

Draw25%

Atalanta53%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.72

Parma22%

Draw26%

Atalanta52%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.59

Parma17%

Draw24%

Atalanta59%

Expected goals 0.83 – 1.78

Parma22%

Draw25%

Atalanta53%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.72

Over 2.5 46% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Parma)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 84

Team strength

Parma

Atalanta

33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 71

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

20 AttackIn forecast 48

33 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Parma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Parma

Atalanta

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

50% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

8.10 ShotsContext 12.90

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

43% On target shareContext 28%

5.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

65% Box shareContext 76%

11% ConversionContext 12%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.83

13.40 Shots allowedContext 11.60

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.00 BlocksContext 3.33

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

68% Save rateContext 79%

41% PossessionIn forecast 55%

334 PassesContext 466

263 Accurate passesContext 387

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.85 Team ratingContext 7.02

11.80 FoulsContext 11.00

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 8.90

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Parma

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km420 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atalanta

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel112 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Parma	Atalanta
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Aug	5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	112 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	420 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	14.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Parma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31Z. Suzuki(G)

5L. Valenti 39A. Circati 15E. Delprato

14E. Valeri 16L. Keita 10Adrián Bernabé 18M. Løvik

22O. Sørensen 11P. Almqvist

9Mateo Pellegrino

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

19B. Djimsiti 4I. Hien 42G. Scalvini

59N. Zalewski 8M. Pašalić 15M. de Roon 16R. Bellanova

70D. Maldini 17C. De Ketelaere

9G. Scamacca

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Parma Absences are shown before kick-off

Atalanta Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Parma+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Atalanta+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Parma · Home No home games yet this season.

Atalanta · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Parma wins0 draws1 Atalanta wins

Goals per game2.00 – 2.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

25 May 2025Atalanta2–3Parma
23 Nov 2024Parma1–3Atalanta

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Parma	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	2.00	2.52
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	49%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Parma	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	2.00	2.52
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	49%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Parma	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	10.00
Corners conceded	6.00	4.00
Match total	11.00	14.00	8.45
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	3.00	0.00
Match total	5.00	3.00	3.64
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Parma	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	7.22
Corners conceded	4.78	4.33
Match total	8.45	11.55	8.45
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.70
Opponent cards	2.00	0.60
Match total	4.10	2.30	3.64
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	10% 1/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 84 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 3.58

Red cards0.20league 0.17

Cards 5+42%league 50%

Fouls24.3league 24.5

Penalties0.23league 0.17

Home wins45%league 42%

Parma

No previous matches with this referee.

Atalanta8 with this referee

Record3-2-3 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 0

W13 Apr 25H · Bologna2–04
W23 Feb 25A · Empoli5–01
D11 Jan 25A · Udinese0–02
L25 Nov 23H · Napoli1–22
L26 Feb 23A · AC Milan0–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.