Parma vs Genoa – 20 Sep 2026

Serie A Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 20 · 14:00 Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma

Parma 18th · 1 pts · 4 played LLDL

2–1Full time

Genoa 19th · 1 pts · 4 played LLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Parma were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Genoa. Parma had 5.9 days of rest, Genoa 8 and had to travel 118 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel118 kmRest days5.9 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Parma43%

Draw26%

Genoa31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Parma45%

Draw25%

Genoa30%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.19

Parma43%

Draw26%

Genoa31%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.19

Parma36%

Draw26%

Genoa38%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.37

Parma44%

Draw25%

Genoa31%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.25

Over 2.5 50% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Parma)

28°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 41%

Warm

Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 117

Team strength

Parma

Genoa

30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 29

20 AttackIn forecast 23

33 DefenceIn forecast 44

15 Form indexContext 16

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Parma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Genoa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Parma

Genoa

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

0.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.53

50% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

9.00 ShotsContext 11.75

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50

33% On target shareContext 21%

5.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

62% Box shareContext 67%

6% ConversionContext 4%

1.33 OffsidesContext 2.75

19.75 Shots allowedContext 18.50

5.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

5.00 BlocksContext 7.00

4.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

74% Save rateContext 55%

43% PossessionIn forecast 46%

388 PassesContext 407

319 Accurate passesContext 337

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.59

9.50 FoulsContext 9.00

16.75 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.81 xGVia Att/Def 0.94

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.44

60% Scored inContext 40%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.40 ShotsContext 10.30

2.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.40

28% On target shareContext 23%

6.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.70

64% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 5%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.11

15.80 Shots allowedContext 14.10

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.10 BlocksContext 5.11

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

77% Save rateContext 65%

42% PossessionIn forecast 50%

359 PassesContext 408

297 Accurate passesContext 334

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.73

9.50 FoulsContext 10.10

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Parma LLDL

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km297 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 15 · 1 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected

L14 SepA · Como1–20.4 xPts
D6 SepH · Monza1–11.8 xPts
L29 AugA · Juventus0–20.6 xPts
L22 AugH · Cagliari0–11.5 xPts

Genoa LLLD

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel118 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 16 · 1 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -3.5 vs expected

D12 SepH · Frosinone1–11.6 xPts
L4 SepH · Como1–41.0 xPts
L30 AugA · Lazio0–10.9 xPts
L22 AugH · Napoli0–21.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Parma	Genoa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Serie A 2026-2027, 14 Sep	8Serie A 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	118 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	297 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	20.1	20

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Parma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40E. Corvi(G)

72Dominik Drobnic 37Mariano Troilo 34Diego Carlos

14E. Valeri 16L. Keita 4V. Sierro 15E. Delprato

19E. Touré 76S. Lontani

9D. Romero

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Genoa Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1J. Bijlow(G)

34S. Otoa 5L. Østigård 27A. Marcandalli

77M. Ellertsson 97M. Sow 32M. Frendrup 3K. Ehizibue

8T. Baldanzi 10J. Messias

18M. Osmajić

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Parma Absences are shown before kick-off

Genoa Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Parma+0.2 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Genoa+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Parma · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.00

Genoa · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Parma	Genoa
Como	L 1–2 A	L 1–4 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Parma wins2 draws2 Genoa wins

Goals per game0.00 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets50% · 100%

18 Jan 2026Parma0–0Genoa
19 Oct 2025Genoa0–0Parma
12 Jan 2025Genoa1–0Parma
4 Nov 2024Parma0–1Genoa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Parma	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	0.50
Conceded per game	1.50	2.00
Match goals	2.00	2.50	2.69
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	25%	25%	50%
Over 3.5	0%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	4	4

	Parma	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	0.50
Conceded per game	1.20	1.40
Match goals	1.90	1.90	2.69
Over 1.5	50%	60%
Over 2.5	20%	30%	50%
Over 3.5	10%	10%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	40%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Parma	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	5.00
Corners conceded	6.50	5.50
Match total	10.25	10.50	9.49
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	1.25	2.50
Opponent cards	1.75	1.25
Match total	3.00	3.75	3.29
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	25% 1/4

	Parma	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	4.20
Corners conceded	6.90	4.40
Match total	10.50	8.60	9.49
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.50
Opponent cards	1.60	1.80
Match total	2.80	3.30	3.29
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 117 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.88league 3.22

Red cards0.19league 0.02

Cards 5+37%league 22%

Fouls23.9league 22.1

Penalties0.23league 0.11

Home wins45%league 39%

Parma1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D30 Aug 25H · Atalanta1–12

Genoa7 with this referee

Record3-3-1 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

D8 Jan 26A · AC Milan1–11
W24 Aug 24A · Monza1–03
W12 May 24H · Sassuolo2–11
D1 Oct 23A · Udinese2–22
W18 Mar 22H · Torino1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.