Serie A Gameweek 17 Sun, Jan 3 · 17:30 Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
Parma 19th · 4 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Napoli 9th · 10 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel544 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Parma—%
Draw—%
Napoli—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Parma)

Forecast from 19 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Parma and Napoli. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

ParmaNapoli
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
28 Current StrengthIn forecast 61
20 AttackIn forecast 61
33 DefenceIn forecast 70
23 Form indexContext 44
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Parma

Attack—
Defense risk—

Napoli

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ParmaNapoli
0.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43
1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
0.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.79
1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.77
-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.36
43% Scored inContext 86%
0% Clean sheetsContext 43%
10.57 ShotsContext 16.71
3.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.43
32% On target shareContext 33%
7.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.86
65% Box shareContext 70%
5% ConversionContext 9%
1.83 OffsidesContext 3.00
17.00 Shots allowedContext 15.57
5.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.86
4.29 BlocksContext 4.40
3.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86
68% Save rateContext 74%
43% PossessionIn forecast 53%
394 PassesContext 510
324 Accurate passesContext 443
82% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.62 Team ratingContext 6.88
9.86 FoulsContext 8.57
15.43 Fouls sufferedContext 8.86
1.57 Yellow cardsContext 0.86
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
0.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.81
1.77 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.79
+0.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.61
50% Scored inContext 80%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
10.30 ShotsContext 14.70
3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
31% On target shareContext 34%
7.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.20
63% Box shareContext 67%
7% ConversionContext 8%
2.11 OffsidesContext 2.90
16.20 Shots allowedContext 16.20
5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
4.50 BlocksContext 5.13
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90
71% Save rateContext 69%
42% PossessionIn forecast 53%
367 PassesContext 516
300 Accurate passesContext 450
82% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.71 Team ratingContext 6.82
10.50 FoulsContext 9.00
14.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Parma
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km53 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • L19 OctH · Torino0–31.3 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Inter0–30.3 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Genoa2–11.6 xPts
  • L14 SepA · Como1–20.4 xPts
  • D6 SepH · Monza1–11.8 xPts
Napoli
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel544 km1,309 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Venezia0–12.3 xPts
  • L13 OctA · Villarreal1–31.1 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Frosinone3–02.1 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Fiorentina1–11.6 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Bologna1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Parma Napoli
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Serie A 2026-2027, 20 Dec14Serie A 2026-2027, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km544 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways53 km1,309 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one33

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Parma Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Torino (H) 0–3, 19 Oct
40E. Corvi(G)
15E. Delprato 37Mariano Troilo 34Diego Carlos
14E. Valeri 16L. Keita 10Adrián Bernabé 27Sascha Britschgi
19E. Touré 80G. Fabbian
9D. Romero
Napoli Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Venezia (A) 0–1, 17 Oct
1A. Meret(G)
5B. Badiashile 13A. Rrahmani 31S. Beukema
37L. Spinazzola 68S. Lobotka 6B. Gilmour 22G. Di Lorenzo
8S. McTominay 23Giovane
20L. Lucca

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Parma Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Napoli Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Parma · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
0.75
Conceded
1.50
Napoli · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentParmaNapoli
Inter L 0–3 A L 2–3 A
Genoa W 2–1 H W 2–0 A
Como L 1–2 A L 1–2 H
Points3 of 9 · 1.00 per game3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Parma wins3 draws1 Napoli wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.75 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 50%
  • 12 Apr 2026Parma1–1Napoli
  • 14 Jan 2026Napoli0–0Parma
  • 18 May 2025Parma0–0Napoli
  • 31 Aug 2024Napoli2–1Parma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

ParmaNapoliForecast
Scored per game 0.571.43
Conceded per game 1.861.00
Match goals 2.432.43
Over 1.5 86%71%
Over 2.5 57%43%
Over 3.5 0%14%
Both teams scored 43%43%
Clean sheets 0%43%
Failed to score 57%14%
Games77
ParmaNapoliForecast
Scored per game 0.701.20
Conceded per game 1.701.10
Match goals 2.402.30
Over 1.5 70%60%
Over 2.5 50%40%
Over 3.5 10%20%
Both teams scored 40%40%
Clean sheets 10%40%
Failed to score 50%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ParmaNapoliLeague
Corners
Corners won3.294.60
Corners conceded5.146.00
Match total8.4310.609.38
Over 8.543% 3/7100% 5/5
Over 9.529% 2/760% 3/5
Over 10.529% 2/720% 1/5
Cards
Cards1.570.86
Opponent cards1.711.29
Match total3.282.153.43
Over 3.557% 4/70% 0/7
Over 4.543% 3/70% 0/7
ParmaNapoliLeague
Corners
Corners won2.903.88
Corners conceded5.805.38
Match total8.709.269.38
Over 8.550% 5/1063% 5/8
Over 9.530% 3/1038% 3/8
Over 10.530% 3/1013% 1/8
Cards
Cards1.701.10
Opponent cards1.601.60
Match total3.302.703.43
Over 3.560% 6/1020% 2/10
Over 4.530% 3/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Parma7 games · scored 4 · conceded 13
2 0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
1 46-60
3 61-75
2 3 76-90
Napoli7 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
0-15
3 1 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
3 2 76-90
Parma10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
2 0-15
4 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
4 5 76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1 0-15
4 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Serie A

View all fixtures →
Cagliari Genoa Jan 317:30 Udinese Atalanta Jan 317:30 AS Roma Frosinone Jan 317:30 Bologna Juventus Jan 317:30 Fiorentina Lazio Jan 317:30 Torino Venezia Jan 317:30 Inter Sassuolo Jan 317:30 Parma Napoli Jan 317:30 Como Lecce Jan 317:30 Monza AC Milan Jan 317:30