Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Sassuolo. Parma had 7.1 days of rest, Sassuolo 6.8 and had to travel 27 km.
Away travel27 kmRest days7.1 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Parma35%
Draw29%
Sassuolo36%
Parma43%
Draw27%
Sassuolo30%
Parma35%
Draw29%
Sassuolo36%
Parma29%
Draw29%
Sassuolo42%
Parma37%
Draw27%
Sassuolo36%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
RefereeN. Turrini
Team strength
Parma
Sassuolo
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
20
AttackIn forecast
41
33
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaSassuolo
0.73
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.24
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
57%
Scored inContext
70%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
10.14
ShotsContext
10.65
3.03
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.81
27%
On target shareContext
36%
6.06
Shots in the boxContext
7.08
56%
Box shareContext
67%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
1.85
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.76
Shots allowedContext
13.95
4.24
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.86
4.06
BlocksContext
3.43
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.68
70%
Save rateContext
72%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
355
PassesContext
395
287
Accurate passesContext
329
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.54
FoulsContext
11.43
13.08
Fouls sufferedContext
12.65
1.54
Yellow cardsContext
2.27
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
7.00
ShotsContext
10.90
2.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
30%
On target shareContext
35%
4.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
54%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.43
13.00
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.70
BlocksContext
3.30
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
69%
Save rateContext
73%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
342
PassesContext
435
280
Accurate passesContext
373
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.50
FoulsContext
11.00
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km297 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sassuolo
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel27 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May | 6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 27 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 297 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 90.2 | 91.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
5L. Valenti
37Mariano Troilo
39A. Circati
14E. Valeri
16L. Keita
41H. Nicolussi
24C. Ordoñez
27Sascha Britschgi
76D. Mikołajewski
9Mateo Pellegrino
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
13S. Turati(G)
23U. Garcia
21J. Idzes
31Tommaso Macchioni
25W. Coulibaly
90I. Koné
35L. Lipani
42K. Thorstvedt
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
10D. Berardi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sassuolo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sassuolo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
1.00points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-8
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.39
Sassuolo · Away
1.11points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-8
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.28
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Parma | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Como | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Inter | L 0–2 AL 0–2 H | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Udinese | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Napoli | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Lazio | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Cremonese | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Torino | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Fiorentina | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Cagliari | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| AC Milan | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Verona | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Bologna | W 1–0 AL 1–3 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Juventus | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Genoa | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Lecce | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | L 2–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 41 of 108 · 1.14 per game | 48 of 108 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Parma wins1 draws0 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 3 Jan 2026Sassuolo1–1Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.73 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.24 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 1.97 | 2.57 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 57% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 54% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 30% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Parma | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 3.68 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.03 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 8.91 | 8.57 | 8.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 17/33 | 57% 21/37 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 12/33 | 43% 16/37 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 11/33 | 27% 10/37 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.68 | 2.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 3.68 | 4.46 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 21/37 | 65% 24/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 12/37 | 43% 16/37 | |
| Parma | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 9.30 | 8.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 4.60 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Parma37 games · scored 27 · conceded 46
4
7
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
6
31-45
4
8
46-60
4
8
61-75
9
13
76-90
Sassuolo36 games · scored 45 · conceded 47
8
10
0-15
4
9
16-30
6
4
31-45
11
8
46-60
10
6
61-75
6
10
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Sassuolo9 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
