Parma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Parma35.3%fair odds 2.83
Draw29.1%fair odds 3.44
Sassuolo35.6%fair odds 2.81
Expected goals1.19 – 1.20total 2.39
Likeliest score1–113.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sassuolo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Parma ↓ · Sassuolo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Parma goals, columns Sassuolo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.8%7.26
- 0–110.3%9.73
- 1–010.2%9.79
- 0–09.8%10.16
- 1–27.8%12.75
- 2–17.8%12.82
- 0–26.6%15.20
- 2–06.5%15.38
- 2–24.7%21.38
- 1–33.1%31.88
Winning margin
5.0%
Parma by 3+
fair 20.18
10.2%
Parma by 2
fair 9.79
20.1%
Parma by 1
fair 4.97
29.1%
Draw
fair 3.44
20.2%
Sassuolo by 1
fair 4.94
10.3%
Sassuolo by 2
fair 9.68
5.1%
Sassuolo by 3+
fair 19.78
Goal distribution
Total goals
10%0
20%1
27%2
21%3
12%4
9%5+
Parma goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
Sassuolo goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma win | 35.3% | 36.5% | -1.2 pp |
| Draw | 29.1% | 27.3% | +1.8 pp |
| Sassuolo win | 35.6% | 36.2% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 42.8% | 50.0% | -7.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.4% | 55.0% | -5.7 pp |
| Expected goals Parma | 1.19 | 1.34 | -0.15 |
| Expected goals Sassuolo | 1.20 | 1.33 | -0.13 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Parma win35.3%2.83
- Draw29.1%3.44
- Sassuolo win35.6%2.81
- Double chance Parma or draw64.4%1.55
- Double chance Parma or Sassuolo70.9%1.41
- Double chance Sassuolo or draw64.7%1.55
- Draw no bet Parma49.8%2.01
- Draw no bet Sassuolo50.2%1.99
Goals
- Over 0.590.2%1.11
- Over 1.569.7%1.44
- Over 2.542.8%2.34
- Over 3.522.0%4.55
- Over 4.59.5%10.54
- Under 1.530.3%3.30
- Under 2.557.2%1.75
- Under 3.578.0%1.28
Both teams to score
- Yes49.4%2.03
- No50.6%1.97
- Yes and over 2.535.6%2.81
- Parma win and yes15.0%6.68
- Draw and yes19.3%5.19
- Sassuolo win and yes15.1%6.62
Team goals
- Parma over 0.569.7%1.44
- Parma over 1.533.5%2.99
- Parma over 2.511.9%8.41
- Sassuolo over 0.569.9%1.43
- Sassuolo over 1.533.7%2.97
- Sassuolo over 2.512.0%8.31
- Parma clean sheet30.1%3.32
- Sassuolo clean sheet30.3%3.29
- Parma win to nil20.3%4.93
- Sassuolo win to nil20.5%4.88
Handicap
- Parma −1.515.2%6.59
- Parma −2.55.0%20.18
- Sassuolo +1.584.8%1.18
- Sassuolo +2.595.0%1.05
- Sassuolo −1.515.4%6.50
- Parma +1.584.6%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored373
Favourite won51.2%
Avg chance given to result40.6%
1X2 Brier0.599
Over 2.5 called right50.4%
BTTS called right51.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 59 | 37.7% | 35.6% |
| 40–50% | 120 | 45.0% | 48.3% |
| 50–60% | 93 | 54.5% | 47.3% |
| 60–70% | 67 | 64.8% | 68.7% |
| 70–80% | 26 | 73.5% | 61.5% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 82.4% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 311 of 373 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6046 | 0.5876 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.2% | 41.0% |
| Favourite won | 49.8% | 52.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 298 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Lazio 2–1 Pisa66·22·12
- ✗Bologna 3–3 Inter26·27·47
- ✗Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta36·28·36
- ✗Udinese 0–1 Cremonese65·21·13
- ✓Cagliari 2–1 Torino37·28·35
- ✗Sassuolo 2–3 Lecce54·26·20
- ✗Atalanta 0–1 Bologna52·25·23
- ✗Inter 1–1 Verona77·16·7
- ✓Como 1–0 Parma65·23·12
- ✓Pisa 0–3 Napoli17·25·58
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 373 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.