Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Torino were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 32). Parma had 8.1 days of rest, Torino 8.1 and had to travel 210 km.
Away travel210 kmRest days8.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Parma37%
Draw29%
Torino33%
Parma39%
Draw27%
Torino34%
Parma38%
Draw29%
Torino33%
Parma31%
Draw29%
Torino40%
Parma38%
Draw27%
Torino35%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
RefereeGiuseppe Collu
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 12
Team strength
Parma
Torino
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
20
AttackIn forecast
39
33
DefenceIn forecast
47
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTorino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaTorino
0.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.25
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
-0.75
Goals minus xGContext
-0.72
25%
Scored inContext
25%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.25
ShotsContext
9.25
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
29%
On target shareContext
46%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
5.75
56%
Box shareContext
63%
2%
ConversionContext
3%
—
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.75
Shots allowedContext
16.75
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
3.50
BlocksContext
3.75
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
71%
Save rateContext
61%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
338
PassesContext
319
268
Accurate passesContext
257
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.64
11.00
FoulsContext
13.50
13.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.56
50%
Scored inContext
30%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.50
ShotsContext
11.10
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
40%
On target shareContext
32%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
63%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
4%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.50
Shots allowedContext
12.90
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.20
BlocksContext
2.67
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
67%
Save rateContext
71%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
319
PassesContext
364
247
Accurate passesContext
298
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.40
FoulsContext
11.90
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km88 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Torino
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel210 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
Torino |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Sep | 8.1Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 210 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 88 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
31Z. Suzuki(G)
3A. Ndiaye
39A. Circati
15E. Delprato
14E. Valeri
16L. Keita
10Adrián Bernabé
27Sascha Britschgi
21G. Oristanio
9Mateo Pellegrino
32P. Cutrone
Torino
Confirmed XI
81F. Israel(G)
23Saúl Coco
13G. Maripán
44A. Ismajli
25N. Nkounkou
32K. Asllani
22C. Casadei
20V. Lazaro
10N. Vlašić
18G. Simeone
26C. Ngonge
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Torino
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Torino+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Torino · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Parma | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Parma wins2 draws0 Torino wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 8 Mar 2025Parma2–2Torino
- 5 Jan 2025Torino0–0Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.25 | 0.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.25 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 0% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Parma | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.25 | 0.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.25 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 0% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 7.25 | 10.66 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.25 | 3.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Parma | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 8.23 | 9.11 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 2.50 | 3.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giuseppe Collu 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.92league 3.48
Red cards0.00league 0.15
Cards 5+25%league 33%
Fouls25.8league 25.7
Penalties0.08league 0.23
Home wins42%league 40%
ParmaNo previous matches with this referee.
Torino1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Apr 25H · Udinese2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Parma4 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
3
76-90
Torino4 games · scored 1 · conceded 8
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
7
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 4 · conceded 16
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
