Parma vs Torino – 19 Oct 2026

Serie A Gameweek 7 Mon, Oct 19 · 19:45 Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma

Parma 16th · 4 pts · 6 played LDLWL

0–3Full time

Torino 14th · 7 pts · 6 played LWLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Torino. Parma were without L. Valenti. Torino were without N. Fortini. Parma had 9.1 days of rest, Torino 7 and had to travel 210 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel210 kmRest days9.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Parma34%

Draw29%

Torino38%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.27

Parma40%

Draw27%

Torino33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Parma34%

Draw29%

Torino37%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.24

Parma27%

Draw28%

Torino45%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.43

Parma35%

Draw27%

Torino38%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.41

Over 2.5 45% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Parma)

17°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 79%

Referee · ItalyGiovanni Ayroldi

Cards per match 5.6
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 53

Team strength

Parma

Torino

31 L90 StrengthIn forecast 36

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

20 AttackIn forecast 39

33 DefenceIn forecast 47

29 Form indexContext 51

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Parma

Attack+2%

Defense risk−10%

Torino

Attack+11%

Defense risk−27%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Parma

Torino

0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

1.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

50% Scored inContext 83%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

8.17 ShotsContext 9.33

2.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.17

33% On target shareContext 34%

5.20 Shots in the boxContext 5.67

63% Box shareContext 59%

8% ConversionContext 13%

1.80 OffsidesContext 4.50

18.33 Shots allowedContext 15.17

5.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.67 BlocksContext 3.67

4.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

74% Save rateContext 64%

42% PossessionIn forecast 51%

384 PassesContext 471

316 Accurate passesContext 399

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.62 Team ratingContext 6.71

10.33 FoulsContext 8.33

15.33 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 0.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

50% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

8.20 ShotsContext 10.40

2.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

29% On target shareContext 30%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.10

63% Box shareContext 57%

9% ConversionContext 12%

2.22 OffsidesContext 3.00

16.50 Shots allowedContext 15.20

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

4.50 BlocksContext 3.90

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

74% Save rateContext 62%

41% PossessionIn forecast 50%

363 PassesContext 447

298 Accurate passesContext 377

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.72

10.30 FoulsContext 10.10

13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Parma LDLWL

Rest9.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km232 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 29 · 4 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected

L10 OctA · Inter0–30.3 xPts
W20 SepH · Genoa2–11.6 xPts
L14 SepA · Como1–20.4 xPts
D6 SepH · Monza1–11.8 xPts
L29 AugA · Juventus0–20.6 xPts

Torino LWLDW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel210 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 51 · 7 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected

W12 OctH · Udinese2–11.6 xPts
D19 SepA · Bologna1–10.9 xPts
L14 SepH · AS Roma0–20.7 xPts
W5 SepA · Fiorentina2–11.1 xPts
L29 AugA · Sassuolo1–21.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Parma	Torino
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.1Serie A 2026-2027, 10 Oct	7Serie A 2026-2027, 12 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	210 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	232 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	5	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Parma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40E. Corvi(G)

15E. Delprato 37Mariano Troilo 34Diego Carlos

14E. Valeri 16L. Keita 10Adrián Bernabé 27Sascha Britschgi

19E. Touré 80G. Fabbian

9D. Romero

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Torino Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

20Lucas Perri(G)

15P. Comuzzo 44A. Ismajli 23Saúl Coco

77Alessio Cacciamani 21Daniel Bragança 8R. Mandragora 45R. Belghali

10N. Vlašić

19C. Adams 18G. Simeone

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Parma Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −6.5% · Defence line −12.4% of weighted minutes

DEF L. Valenti Starter 6.85 Def −9.6%
MID H. Nicolussi Rotation 6.67 Att −2.9% Def −1.7%
ATT N. Elphege Rotation 6.66 Att −3.2%
DEF A. Ndiaye Rotation 6.47 Def −1.1%
ATT P. Almqvist Depth 6.62 Att −0.4%

Torino Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −1.9% · Defence line −7.4% of weighted minutes

DEF N. Fortini Starter 6.73 Def −6.2%
MID E. İlkhan Rotation 6.78 Att −1.9% Def −1.0%
DEF F. Israel Depth 6.45 Def −0.2%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): P. Pellegri

Total impact vs full squads

Parma-0.2 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Torino+0.5 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Parma · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Torino · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Parma wins2 draws1 Torino wins

Goals per game1.25 – 1.75 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 25%

13 Mar 2026Torino4–1Parma
29 Sep 2025Parma2–1Torino
8 Mar 2025Parma2–2Torino
5 Jan 2025Torino0–0Parma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Parma	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	1.17
Conceded per game	1.67	1.50
Match goals	2.33	2.67	2.46
Over 1.5	83%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	67%	45%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	83%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	17%
Games	6	6

	Parma	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.20
Conceded per game	1.60	1.60
Match goals	2.30	2.80	2.46
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	45%
Over 3.5	10%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	51%
Clean sheets	10%	0%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Parma	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	2.83	3.50
Corners conceded	5.67	3.83
Match total	8.50	7.33	9.40
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	17% 1/6
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	0% 0/6
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	0% 0/6
Cards
Cards	1.33	0.67
Opponent cards	1.67	1.17
Match total	3.00	1.84	3.40
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	17% 1/6
Over 4.5	33% 2/6	0% 0/6

	Parma	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	2.60	3.70
Corners conceded	6.40	4.20
Match total	9.00	7.90	9.40
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.10
Opponent cards	1.50	1.30
Match total	2.90	2.40	3.40
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Giovanni Ayroldi Italy · 53 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.34league 3.29

Red cards0.30league 0.06

Cards 5+74%league 29%

Fouls27.8league 21.3

Penalties0.15league 0.14

Home wins38%league 48%

Parma1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D17 Aug 24H · Fiorentina1–13

Torino6 with this referee

Record3-1-2 Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 0

D29 Oct 25A · Bologna0–03
W14 Sep 25A · AS Roma1–03
W25 Oct 24H · Como1–03
W16 Feb 24H · Lecce2–01
L10 Feb 23A · AC Milan0–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.