PEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
PEC Zwolle
13th · 20 pts · 18 played
WLWLD
First leg2–2
3–1Full time
AZ Alkmaar
5th · 28 pts · 17 played
LLDLW
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 20). AZ Alkmaar usually keep the ball (55% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. PEC Zwolle had 7 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 7.1 and had to travel 92 km.
Away travel92 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
PEC Zwolle27%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar48%
PEC Zwolle28%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar46%
PEC Zwolle27%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar47%
PEC Zwolle21%
Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar56%
PEC Zwolle27%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar46%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zwolle)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 43
Team strength
PEC ZwolleAZ Alkmaar
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
17
AttackIn forecast
52
14
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PEC ZwolleAZ Alkmaar
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.88
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
83%
Scored inContext
94%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
8.11
ShotsContext
16.53
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.12
35%
On target shareContext
37%
4.88
Shots in the boxContext
11.29
62%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.07
OffsidesContext
1.50
17.72
Shots allowedContext
12.41
6.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.76
4.17
BlocksContext
3.75
4.39
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
68%
Save rateContext
69%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
353
PassesContext
454
274
Accurate passesContext
379
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.50
FoulsContext
10.06
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.82
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
100%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.10
ShotsContext
14.90
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
42%
On target shareContext
38%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
65%
Box shareContext
66%
19%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
18.50
Shots allowedContext
10.80
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
5.00
BlocksContext
3.30
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
66%
Save rateContext
59%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
348
PassesContext
487
268
Accurate passesContext
412
77%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.10
FoulsContext
9.20
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PEC Zwolle
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km127 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AZ Alkmaar
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel92 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PEC Zwolle |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Jan | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 92 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 127 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
6T. Gooijer
8Z. Buurmeester
30R. Thomas
25T. Oosting
7S. Shoretire
10Koen Kostons
9Y. Namli
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
15Mateo Chávez
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
34M. de Wit
6P. Koopmeiners
26K. Smit
17I. Jensen
10S. Mijnans
7Weslley Patati
9T. Parrott
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PEC Zwolle
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PEC Zwolle-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- AZ Alkmaar+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
PEC Zwolle · Home
1.63points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-3
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.38
AZ Alkmaar · Away
1.44points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-4
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | PEC Zwolle | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Twente | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 1–0 H | L 3–4 A |
| Feyenoord | L 1–6 A | D 3–3 H |
| Heerenveen | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Groningen | D 2–2 A | W 4–1 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Heracles | L 2–8 A | W 2–1 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–4 H | L 1–5 H |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Ajax | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 A |
| Utrecht | L 0–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| Telstar | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 19 of 48 · 1.19 per game | 27 of 48 · 1.69 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 PEC Zwolle wins2 draws3 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.20
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 24 Sep 2025AZ Alkmaar2–2PEC Zwolle
- 9 Feb 2025AZ Alkmaar2–0PEC Zwolle
- 20 Sep 2024PEC Zwolle1–2AZ Alkmaar
- 20 Jan 2024AZ Alkmaar2–2PEC Zwolle
- 24 Sep 2023PEC Zwolle0–3AZ Alkmaar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PEC Zwolle | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 3.39 | 3.53 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 71% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 71% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 6% | |
| Games | 18 | 17 |
| PEC Zwolle | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 3.40 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PEC Zwolle | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.56 | 6.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.81 | 4.18 | |
| Match total | 8.37 | 10.47 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 7/16 | 76% 13/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 6/16 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 4/16 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.22 | 2.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.61 | 1.65 | |
| Match total | 3.83 | 4.00 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 10/18 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 6/18 | 41% 7/17 | |
| PEC Zwolle | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.44 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 10.30 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.95league 3.34
Red cards0.26league 0.22
Cards 5+28%league 32%
Fouls21.9league 21.6
Penalties0.21league 0.29
Home wins44%league 46%
PEC Zwolle5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W8 Nov 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–02
- L25 Apr 25A · Feyenoord0–41
- L11 Jan 25H · NEC Nijmegen0–11
- D11 Feb 24A · GO Ahead Eagles1–12
- W2 Dec 23A · FC Volendam5–00
AZ Alkmaar4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D16 Mar 25A · Ajax2–24
- D18 Jan 25A · Utrecht0–03
- L2 Nov 24A · Feyenoord2–30
- L17 Dec 23H · PSV Eindhoven0–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PEC Zwolle17 games · scored 22 · conceded 37
5
2
0-15
1
7
16-30
6
14
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
7
76-90
AZ Alkmaar17 games · scored 32 · conceded 28
5
5
0-15
6
3
16-30
9
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
5
6
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 15 · conceded 24
3
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
8
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
