PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord – 17 May 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, May 17 · 13:30 MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle

PEC Zwolle 13th · 37 pts · 33 played LDLWL

First leg1–6 0–2Full time

Feyenoord 2nd · 62 pts · 33 played DDWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Feyenoord were slight favourites.

Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Feyenoord. PEC Zwolle had 6.9 days of rest, Feyenoord 6.9 and had to travel 128 km.

Away travel128 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

PEC Zwolle21%

Draw22%

Feyenoord57%

Expected goals 1.15 – 2.01

PEC Zwolle25%

Draw26%

Feyenoord49%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.63

PEC Zwolle21%

Draw23%

Feyenoord56%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.98

PEC Zwolle16%

Draw20%

Feyenoord65%

Expected goals 1.03 – 2.25

PEC Zwolle21%

Draw23%

Feyenoord56%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.94

Over 2.5 61% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Zwolle)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.10
Matches 29

Team strength

PEC Zwolle

Feyenoord

19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

17 AttackIn forecast 76

14 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PEC Zwolle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PEC Zwolle

Feyenoord

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.06

2.09 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.89

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

85% Scored inContext 88%

18% Clean sheetsContext 27%

9.55 ShotsContext 16.42

3.69 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.21

38% On target shareContext 38%

6.03 Shots in the boxContext 11.39

63% Box shareContext 70%

14% ConversionContext 13%

2.04 OffsidesContext 1.90

16.21 Shots allowedContext 10.61

6.06 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.34

4.06 BlocksContext 2.88

4.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.04

67% Save rateContext 68%

45% PossessionIn forecast 53%

371 PassesContext 429

291 Accurate passesContext 355

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.99

11.27 FoulsContext 9.64

11.64 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.61 Yellow cardsContext 1.58

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.85

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.35

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.60 ShotsContext 14.00

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60

36% On target shareContext 40%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 10.10

64% Box shareContext 71%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.75

15.40 Shots allowedContext 11.20

5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

4.30 BlocksContext 3.10

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

64% Save rateContext 68%

46% PossessionIn forecast 50%

374 PassesContext 385

292 Accurate passesContext 308

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.96

12.70 FoulsContext 9.30

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PEC Zwolle

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km338 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Feyenoord

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel128 km282 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	PEC Zwolle	Feyenoord
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 May	6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	128 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	338 km	282 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	84	83.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PEC Zwolle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

41D. Verduin(G)

2S. Floranus 5T. Velthuis 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen

35Jamiro Monteiro 8Z. Buurmeester

18O. Velanas 25T. Oosting 20G. Reiziger

10Koen Kostons

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22T. Wellenreuther(G)

15J. Bos 24T. Kraaijeveld 18G. Trauner 26G. Read

10L. Valente 28O. Targhalline

19R. Sterling 44Tobias van den Elshout 23A. Hadj Moussa

17C. Tengstedt

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

PEC Zwolle Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Feyenoord Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

PEC Zwolle-0.1 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Feyenoord+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

PEC Zwolle · Home 1.75points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 8-4-4
Scored: 1.31
Conceded: 1.19

Feyenoord · Away 1.63points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 7-5-4
Scored: 1.81
Conceded: 1.31

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	PEC Zwolle	Feyenoord
Fortuna Sittard	L 2–3 AW 1–0 H	W 2–1 AW 2–0 H
Heracles	W 1–0 HL 2–8 A	W 4–2 HW 7–0 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–6 AL 0–4 H	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H
Excelsior	D 2–2 HL 1–2 A	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–5 AL 0–2 H	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A
NAC Breda	W 2–1 HD 2–2 A	D 3–3 AW 2–0 H
Groningen	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A	W 3–1 HW 1–0 A
Sparta Rotterdam	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 3–4 HW 4–0 A
Ajax	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Utrecht	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H	W 1–0 AW 3–2 H
Heerenveen	L 2–4 AW 2–1 H	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H
FC Volendam	L 1–2 HL 1–2 A	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H
Telstar	W 4–1 HW 2–0 A	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–2 AD 2–2 H	D 1–1 AL 2–4 H
AZ Alkmaar	W 3–1 HD 2–2 A	D 1–1 HD 3–3 A
Twente	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Points	37 of 96 · 1.16 per game	59 of 96 · 1.84 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 PEC Zwolle wins0 draws4 Feyenoord wins

Goals per game0.50 – 4.25 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

6 Dec 2025Feyenoord6–1PEC Zwolle
25 Apr 2025Feyenoord4–0PEC Zwolle
18 Aug 2024PEC Zwolle1–5Feyenoord
8 Oct 2023PEC Zwolle0–2Feyenoord

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	PEC Zwolle	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	2.06
Conceded per game	2.09	1.33
Match goals	3.42	3.39	3.16
Over 1.5	85%	85%
Over 2.5	64%	61%	61%
Over 3.5	45%	39%
Both teams scored	70%	64%	60%
Clean sheets	18%	27%
Failed to score	15%	12%
Games	33	33

	PEC Zwolle	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.50
Conceded per game	2.00	1.20
Match goals	3.10	2.70	3.16
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	61%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	80%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	PEC Zwolle	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	3.84	6.81
Corners conceded	5.48	3.52
Match total	9.32	10.33	10.30
Over 8.5	52% 16/31	68% 21/31
Over 9.5	48% 15/31	55% 17/31
Over 10.5	35% 11/31	39% 12/31
Cards
Cards	1.76	1.67
Opponent cards	1.48	1.58
Match total	3.24	3.25	3.28
Over 3.5	39% 13/33	42% 14/33
Over 4.5	24% 8/33	24% 8/33

	PEC Zwolle	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	5.40
Corners conceded	4.50	3.00
Match total	9.80	8.40	10.30
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.70
Opponent cards	1.60	1.90
Match total	2.80	3.60	3.28
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 29 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.14league 3.11

Red cards0.03league 0.17

Cards 5+10%league 26%

Fouls22.5league 21.2

Penalties0.10league 0.21

Home wins41%league 45%

PEC Zwolle3 with this referee

Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W21 Mar 26H · NAC Breda2–12
D25 Oct 25H · NEC Nijmegen2–20
D13 Apr 25H · Twente1–12

Feyenoord

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.