PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles – 21 Sep 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Sep 21 · 11:15 MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle

PEC Zwolle 13th · 6 pts · 4 played WWLL

0–2Full time

GO Ahead Eagles 12th · 6 pts · 5 played DDLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

PEC Zwolle were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. PEC Zwolle had 7.8 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 7.7 and had to travel 29 km.

Away travel29 kmRest days7.8 · 7.7Matches / 14d1 · 1

PEC Zwolle43%

Draw26%

GO Ahead Eagles31%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.26

PEC Zwolle42%

Draw27%

GO Ahead Eagles31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

PEC Zwolle42%

Draw26%

GO Ahead Eagles31%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.27

PEC Zwolle35%

Draw27%

GO Ahead Eagles38%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.42

PEC Zwolle43%

Draw27%

GO Ahead Eagles31%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.22

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Zwolle)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 37

Team strength

PEC Zwolle

GO Ahead Eagles

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 24

17 AttackIn forecast 29

14 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PEC Zwolle

Attack—

Defense risk—

GO Ahead Eagles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PEC Zwolle

GO Ahead Eagles

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.89

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.42

75% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.00 ShotsContext 12.80

2.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

31% On target shareContext 47%

4.75 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

60% Box shareContext 68%

13% ConversionContext 14%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.25 Shots allowedContext 22.00

5.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

2.75 BlocksContext 8.00

4.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

74% Save rateContext 67%

45% PossessionIn forecast 48%

387 PassesContext 400

309 Accurate passesContext 328

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.93

11.50 FoulsContext 9.60

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

This league season, per match · 4 and 5 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.46

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.82

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

80% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.50 ShotsContext 12.90

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89

30% On target shareContext 34%

7.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.89

60% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.70 OffsidesContext 1.57

12.50 Shots allowedContext 21.50

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.60

3.44 BlocksContext 6.90

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.70

71% Save rateContext 71%

50% PossessionIn forecast 52%

425 PassesContext 443

351 Accurate passesContext 370

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.94

12.20 FoulsContext 7.90

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PEC Zwolle

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km166 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

GO Ahead Eagles

Rest7.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel29 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	PEC Zwolle	GO Ahead Eagles
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Sep	7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	29 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	166 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.3	4.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PEC Zwolle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

16T. de Graaff(G)

2S. Floranus 4A. MacNulty 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen

35Jamiro Monteiro 30R. Thomas 25T. Oosting

22K. de Rooij 10Koen Kostons 11D. Mbayo

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

GO Ahead Eagles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22J. De Busser(G)

5D. James 4J. Kramer 3G. Nauber 2M. Deijl

8H. Linthorst 21M. Meulensteen

17M. Suray 7J. Breum 24K. Goudmijn

16V. Edvardsen

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

PEC Zwolle Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

GO Ahead Eagles Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

PEC Zwolle+0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
GO Ahead Eagles-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

PEC Zwolle · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.00

GO Ahead Eagles · Away 1.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	PEC Zwolle	GO Ahead Eagles
Ajax	L 1–3 A	D 2–2 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 PEC Zwolle wins4 draws0 GO Ahead Eagles wins

Goals per game1.25 – 1.25 Over 2.525% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

11 May 2025PEC Zwolle1–1GO Ahead Eagles
3 Nov 2024GO Ahead Eagles2–2PEC Zwolle
11 Feb 2024GO Ahead Eagles1–1PEC Zwolle
17 Sep 2023PEC Zwolle1–1GO Ahead Eagles

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	PEC Zwolle	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.80
Conceded per game	1.25	1.80
Match goals	2.25	3.60	2.79
Over 1.5	75%	100%
Over 2.5	25%	100%	53%
Over 3.5	25%	60%
Both teams scored	25%	60%	57%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	25%	20%
Games	4	5

	PEC Zwolle	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.80
Conceded per game	1.25	1.80
Match goals	2.25	3.60	2.79
Over 1.5	75%	100%
Over 2.5	25%	100%	53%
Over 3.5	25%	60%
Both teams scored	25%	60%	57%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	25%	20%
Games	4	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	PEC Zwolle	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	7.40
Corners conceded	4.33	5.60
Match total	6.33	13.00	9.94
Over 8.5	0% 0/3	100% 5/5
Over 9.5	0% 0/3	100% 5/5
Over 10.5	0% 0/3	80% 4/5
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.20
Opponent cards	1.75	2.00
Match total	4.25	3.20	3.62
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	40% 2/5
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	20% 1/5

	PEC Zwolle	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	3.56	6.00
Corners conceded	3.78	6.30
Match total	7.34	12.30	9.94
Over 8.5	22% 2/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.30
Opponent cards	1.70	1.80
Match total	3.60	3.10	3.62
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 37 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.16league 3.43

Red cards0.11league 0.18

Cards 5+30%league 37%

Fouls19.6league 22.6

Penalties0.27league 0.14

Home wins49%league 49%

PEC Zwolle4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W18 Jan 25H · PSV Eindhoven3–12
D8 Dec 24A · Groningen0–00
L20 Oct 24H · NAC Breda1–21
W4 Feb 24A · Sparta Rotterdam2–03

GO Ahead Eagles4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against1 · 0

D27 Apr 25A · Almere City FC0–01
L1 Dec 24A · Twente2–32
W6 Oct 24H · Heracles4–11
W11 Nov 23A · Waalwijk1–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.