PEC Zwolle
Attack+12%
Defense risk−5%
Our take
It was too close to call.
GO Ahead Eagles were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 15). PEC Zwolle were without Y. Namli. PEC Zwolle had 6.9 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 7.8 and had to travel 29 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel29 kmRest days6.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
PEC Zwolle35%
Draw24%
GO Ahead Eagles41%
PEC Zwolle34%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles39%
PEC Zwolle35%
Draw24%
GO Ahead Eagles41%
PEC Zwolle27%
Draw23%
GO Ahead Eagles50%
PEC Zwolle35%
Draw25%
GO Ahead Eagles40%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zwolle)
10°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 0.1 mm
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 93%
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 127
Team strength
PEC Zwolle
GO Ahead Eagles
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
17
AttackIn forecast
29
14
DefenceIn forecast
17
6
Form indexContext
18
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack+21%
Defense risk−26%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
PEC ZwolleGO Ahead Eagles
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.38
2.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.13
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.84
50%
Scored inContext
100%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.13
ShotsContext
15.50
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.25
34%
On target shareContext
40%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.13
57%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
15%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.33
19.63
Shots allowedContext
16.63
6.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
6.00
BlocksContext
5.57
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
64%
Save rateContext
61%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
348
PassesContext
481
263
Accurate passesContext
399
76%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.75
FoulsContext
7.00
10.13
Fouls sufferedContext
10.13
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.88
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.34
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.80
50%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.40
ShotsContext
13.70
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
33%
On target shareContext
40%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
57%
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.43
19.10
Shots allowedContext
19.20
6.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
5.50
BlocksContext
6.56
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.22
63%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
364
PassesContext
443
281
Accurate passesContext
364
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.60
FoulsContext
7.30
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PEC Zwolle
LDLLL
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 6 · 1 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -4.2 vs expected
GO Ahead Eagles
LDDDD
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel29 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 18 · 4 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PEC Zwolle |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 7.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 29 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
1J. Schendelaar(G)
2S. Floranus
24N. Viergever
28S. Graves
3O. Aertssen
8T. Sommer
30R. Thomas
11D. Mbayo
25T. Oosting
37Gilles van der Wal
17S. van Hooijdonk
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
1C. Haug(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
25G. van Zwam
2A. Sampsted
8H. Linthorst
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
10S. Tengstedt
16V. Edvardsen
9S. Sigurðarson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −6.5% · Defence line −3.9% of weighted minutes
- MID Y. Namli Starter 7.36 Att −6.5% Def −3.9%
GO Ahead Eagles
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −4.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF J. Dirksen Rotation 6.99 Def −4.8%
Total impact vs full squads
- PEC Zwolle-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.2 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
PEC Zwolle · Home
0.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-4
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 3.25
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | PEC Zwolle | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Feyenoord | L 0–7 H | D 2–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 2–2 A | D 3–3 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 1 of 12 · 0.25 per game | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 PEC Zwolle wins4 draws2 GO Ahead Eagles wins
Goals per game0.83 – 2.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 5 Apr 2026GO Ahead Eagles5–0PEC Zwolle
- 21 Sep 2025PEC Zwolle0–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 11 May 2025PEC Zwolle1–1GO Ahead Eagles
- 3 Nov 2024GO Ahead Eagles2–2PEC Zwolle
- 11 Feb 2024GO Ahead Eagles1–1PEC Zwolle
- 17 Sep 2023PEC Zwolle1–1GO Ahead Eagles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PEC Zwolle | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 2.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.63 | 2.13 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 4.50 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 75% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 100% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| PEC Zwolle | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 4.40 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 100% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PEC Zwolle | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 6.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.38 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 11.63 | 11.13 | 10.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 0.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.13 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.76 | 1.88 | 2.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 0% 0/8 | |
| PEC Zwolle | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.70 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 11.70 | 11.70 | 10.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.90 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 2.30 | 1.80 | 2.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 127 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.26league 2.78
Red cards0.13league 0.07
Cards 5+26%league 14%
Fouls21.7league 21.3
Penalties0.32league 0.24
Home wins45%league 33%
PEC Zwolle5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L5 Apr 26A · GO Ahead Eagles0–51
- D18 Oct 25A · NAC Breda2–23
- W29 Mar 25H · Waalwijk2–01
- D13 Jan 24H · Heerenveen2–21
- W5 Nov 23H · Fortuna Sittard2–03
GO Ahead Eagles6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 0.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W5 Apr 26H · PEC Zwolle5–00
- D17 Aug 25H · Ajax2–21
- L8 Feb 25A · Heracles2–40
- W23 Nov 24H · Almere City FC3–00
- W21 Jan 24A · Sparta Rotterdam2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PEC Zwolle8 games · scored 6 · conceded 21
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
1
5
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles8 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
6
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 8 · conceded 26
1
0-15
2
6
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
2
7
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 21 · conceded 23
1
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
5
1
46-60
6
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
