PEC Zwolle vs Groningen – 13 Mar 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Fri, Mar 13 · 19:00 MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle

PEC Zwolle 13th · 29 pts · 26 played LLDDD

First leg2–2 1–1Full time

Groningen 10th · 34 pts · 26 played LLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

PEC Zwolle were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Groningen. PEC Zwolle had 5.3 days of rest, Groningen 6.1 and had to travel 85 km.

Away travel85 kmRest days5.3 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

PEC Zwolle43%

Draw25%

Groningen32%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.42

PEC Zwolle42%

Draw27%

Groningen31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

PEC Zwolle42%

Draw25%

Groningen33%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.41

PEC Zwolle35%

Draw25%

Groningen40%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.59

PEC Zwolle43%

Draw25%

Groningen32%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.37

Over 2.5 60% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Zwolle)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 36

Team strength

PEC Zwolle

Groningen

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

17 AttackIn forecast 41

14 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PEC Zwolle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PEC Zwolle

Groningen

1.35 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.38

1.96 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

+0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

85% Scored inContext 77%

19% Clean sheetsContext 27%

9.23 ShotsContext 15.00

3.68 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88

38% On target shareContext 38%

5.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.76

63% Box shareContext 57%

15% ConversionContext 9%

2.05 OffsidesContext 1.95

16.42 Shots allowedContext 10.81

5.92 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.08 BlocksContext 2.91

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.87

69% Save rateContext 65%

45% PossessionIn forecast 51%

369 PassesContext 414

290 Accurate passesContext 332

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.81

10.88 FoulsContext 10.46

11.73 Fouls sufferedContext 9.85

1.77 Yellow cardsContext 1.65

0.12 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.45

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.37 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

90% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.60 ShotsContext 14.00

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

43% On target shareContext 31%

7.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.44

66% Box shareContext 56%

14% ConversionContext 9%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.50 Shots allowedContext 10.90

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

4.00 BlocksContext 3.50

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

72% Save rateContext 66%

50% PossessionIn forecast 49%

405 PassesContext 413

323 Accurate passesContext 330

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.75

11.20 FoulsContext 9.80

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 8.40

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PEC Zwolle

Rest5.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km256 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Groningen

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel85 km257 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	PEC Zwolle	Groningen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Mar	6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	85 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	256 km	257 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8	8.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PEC Zwolle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16T. de Graaff(G)

4A. MacNulty 5T. Velthuis 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen

8Z. Buurmeester 30R. Thomas

7S. Shoretire 25T. Oosting 9Y. Namli

10Koen Kostons

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-4-2

21H. Jurjus(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente

7T. Hernes 14J. Schreuders 18T. Land 17D. van der Werff

26T. van Bergen 10Y. Taha

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

PEC Zwolle Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Groningen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

PEC Zwolle+1.1 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Groningen-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

PEC Zwolle · Home 1.67points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 6-2-4
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.25

Groningen · Away 1.23points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 5-1-7
Scored: 1.23
Conceded: 1.69

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	PEC Zwolle	Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 0–2 AL 0–2 H
Ajax	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A
Utrecht	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
Heerenveen	L 2–4 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
FC Volendam	L 1–2 HL 1–2 A	L 2–3 AW 3–0 H
Telstar	W 4–1 HW 2–0 A	W 2–0 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–2 AD 2–2 H	L 0–2 A
AZ Alkmaar	W 3–1 HD 2–2 A	L 1–4 A
Twente	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Excelsior	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A
Feyenoord	L 1–6 A	L 0–1 H
Heracles	L 2–8 A	W 4–0 H
NAC Breda	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–4 H	L 1–2 HL 2–4 A
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–2 H	D 1–1 A
Points	28 of 75 · 1.12 per game	33 of 75 · 1.32 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 PEC Zwolle wins2 draws0 Groningen wins

Goals per game1.33 – 0.67 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets67% · 33%

23 Nov 2025Groningen2–2PEC Zwolle
18 May 2025PEC Zwolle2–0Groningen
8 Dec 2024Groningen0–0PEC Zwolle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	PEC Zwolle	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.35	1.38
Conceded per game	1.96	1.38
Match goals	3.31	2.77	3.10
Over 1.5	85%	88%
Over 2.5	62%	54%	60%
Over 3.5	42%	23%
Both teams scored	69%	54%	62%
Clean sheets	19%	27%
Failed to score	15%	23%
Games	26	26

	PEC Zwolle	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.20
Conceded per game	1.50	1.50
Match goals	3.00	2.70	3.10
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	60%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	90%	70%	62%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	PEC Zwolle	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	3.54	6.12
Corners conceded	5.79	4.56
Match total	9.33	10.68	10.33
Over 8.5	54% 13/24	72% 18/25
Over 9.5	50% 12/24	48% 12/25
Over 10.5	33% 8/24	40% 10/25
Cards
Cards	1.96	1.73
Opponent cards	1.50	1.65
Match total	3.46	3.38	3.45
Over 3.5	46% 12/26	46% 12/26
Over 4.5	27% 7/26	23% 6/26

	PEC Zwolle	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	6.70
Corners conceded	5.40	4.60
Match total	10.10	11.30	10.33
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.60
Opponent cards	1.20	1.30
Match total	2.70	2.90	3.45
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 36 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.22league 3.26

Red cards0.28league 0.18

Cards 5+22%league 29%

Fouls22.5league 21.4

Penalties0.33league 0.25

Home wins42%league 44%

PEC Zwolle5 with this referee

Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.4 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

W31 Jan 26H · Telstar4–10
D23 Nov 25A · Groningen2–23
L4 Oct 25H · PSV Eindhoven0–41
L24 Nov 24A · Ajax0–21
L24 Feb 24H · PSV Eindhoven1–72

Groningen4 with this referee

Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

D23 Nov 25H · PEC Zwolle2–21
D29 Mar 25A · NAC Breda1–14
L2 Feb 25A · Sparta Rotterdam0–11
L15 Dec 24A · Twente0–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.