PEC Zwolle
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
PEC Zwolle
13th · 29 pts · 26 played
LLDDD
First leg2–2
1–1Full time
Groningen
10th · 34 pts · 26 played
LLLLW
PEC Zwolle43.2%fair odds 2.31
Draw24.8%fair odds 4.04
Groningen32.0%fair odds 3.13
Expected goals1.68 – 1.42total 3.10
Likeliest score1–111.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Groningen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| PEC Zwolle ↓ · Groningen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PEC Zwolle goals, columns Groningen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%8.85
- 2–19.0%11.08
- 1–27.6%13.11
- 1–07.0%14.33
- 2–26.4%15.58
- 2–06.3%15.75
- 0–15.8%17.21
- 3–15.1%19.76
- 0–05.1%19.78
- 0–24.5%22.05
Winning margin
9.6%
PEC Zwolle by 3+
fair 10.37
13.2%
PEC Zwolle by 2
fair 7.58
20.4%
PEC Zwolle by 1
fair 4.90
24.8%
Draw
fair 4.04
17.2%
Groningen by 1
fair 5.83
9.4%
Groningen by 2
fair 10.61
5.4%
Groningen by 3+
fair 18.50
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
PEC Zwolle goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Groningen goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 43.2% | 43.1% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 24.8% | 25.2% | -0.5 pp |
| Groningen win | 32.0% | 31.6% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.0% | 57.9% | +2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.3% | 60.7% | +1.6 pp |
| Expected goals PEC Zwolle | 1.68 | 1.64 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Groningen | 1.42 | 1.37 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- PEC Zwolle win43.2%2.31
- Draw24.8%4.04
- Groningen win32.0%3.13
- Double chance PEC Zwolle or draw68.0%1.47
- Double chance PEC Zwolle or Groningen75.2%1.33
- Double chance Groningen or draw56.8%1.76
- Draw no bet PEC Zwolle57.5%1.74
- Draw no bet Groningen42.5%2.35
Goals
- Over 0.594.9%1.05
- Over 1.582.2%1.22
- Over 2.560.0%1.67
- Over 3.537.6%2.66
- Over 4.520.2%4.94
- Under 1.517.8%5.60
- Under 2.540.0%2.50
- Under 3.562.4%1.60
Both teams to score
- Yes62.3%1.60
- No37.7%2.65
- Yes and over 2.551.0%1.96
- PEC Zwolle win and yes24.2%4.14
- Draw and yes19.7%5.08
- Groningen win and yes18.5%5.42
Team goals
- PEC Zwolle over 0.581.4%1.23
- PEC Zwolle over 1.550.1%2.00
- PEC Zwolle over 2.523.8%4.20
- Groningen over 0.575.9%1.32
- Groningen over 1.541.6%2.41
- Groningen over 2.517.2%5.82
- PEC Zwolle clean sheet24.1%4.14
- Groningen clean sheet18.6%5.38
- PEC Zwolle win to nil19.1%5.24
- Groningen win to nil13.5%7.38
Handicap
- PEC Zwolle −1.522.8%4.38
- PEC Zwolle −2.59.6%10.37
- Groningen +1.577.2%1.30
- Groningen +2.590.4%1.11
- Groningen −1.514.8%6.74
- PEC Zwolle +1.585.2%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored234
Favourite won50.9%
Avg chance given to result40.9%
1X2 Brier0.591
Over 2.5 called right62.0%
BTTS called right63.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 39 | 38.0% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 88 | 44.9% | 47.7% |
| 50–60% | 51 | 54.9% | 43.1% |
| 60–70% | 31 | 64.3% | 64.5% |
| 70–80% | 18 | 74.3% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 194 of 234 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5925 | 0.5870 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 42.1% |
| Favourite won | 50.5% | 52.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 194 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 234 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.