PEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. PEC Zwolle had 5.1 days of rest, Heerenveen 5.3 and had to travel 51 km.
Away travel51 kmRest days5.1 · 5.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
PEC Zwolle39%
Draw27%
Heerenveen34%
PEC Zwolle40%
Draw27%
Heerenveen32%
PEC Zwolle40%
Draw27%
Heerenveen33%
PEC Zwolle32%
Draw26%
Heerenveen41%
PEC Zwolle40%
Draw27%
Heerenveen33%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zwolle)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsStan Teuben
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
PEC Zwolle
Heerenveen
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
17
AttackIn forecast
36
14
DefenceIn forecast
40
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PEC ZwolleHeerenveen
1.23
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.69
2.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.69
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.99
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
77%
Scored inContext
85%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.38
ShotsContext
15.46
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.38
33%
On target shareContext
35%
5.08
Shots in the boxContext
10.25
61%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.09
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.54
Shots allowedContext
10.08
6.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.31
4.31
BlocksContext
2.88
4.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.54
66%
Save rateContext
59%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
353
PassesContext
427
276
Accurate passesContext
342
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.15
FoulsContext
10.85
12.15
Fouls sufferedContext
11.62
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
1.54
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
2.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
2.05
1.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.50
ShotsContext
14.90
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
34%
On target shareContext
38%
5.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.78
62%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.83
18.70
Shots allowedContext
10.90
6.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.60
BlocksContext
3.14
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
61%
Save rateContext
58%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
342
PassesContext
426
266
Accurate passesContext
341
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.50
FoulsContext
10.80
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PEC Zwolle
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km169 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heerenveen
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel51 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PEC Zwolle |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 5.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 51 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 169 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
6T. Gooijer
28S. Graves
3O. Aertssen
35Jamiro Monteiro
30R. Thomas
25T. Oosting
22K. de Rooij
10Koen Kostons
7S. Shoretire
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
6J. van Overeem
8L. Brouwers
7M. Rivera
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PEC Zwolle
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heerenveen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PEC Zwolle-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Heerenveen+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
PEC Zwolle · Home
1.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Heerenveen · Away
0.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | PEC Zwolle | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 2–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 A | D 3–3 H |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Ajax | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Utrecht | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Telstar | W 2–0 A | W 3–2 A |
| Twente | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 10 of 30 · 1.00 per game | 14 of 30 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 PEC Zwolle wins3 draws0 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 16 Feb 2025PEC Zwolle1–1Heerenveen
- 6 Oct 2024Heerenveen1–1PEC Zwolle
- 13 Jan 2024PEC Zwolle2–2Heerenveen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PEC Zwolle | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.23 | 1.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.23 | 1.69 | |
| Match goals | 3.46 | 3.38 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 69% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 54% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 85% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 15% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| PEC Zwolle | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.60 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PEC Zwolle | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.64 | 5.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.09 | 4.69 | |
| Match total | 7.73 | 10.54 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 36% 4/11 | 85% 11/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 3/11 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 9% 1/11 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.23 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.62 | 1.77 | |
| Match total | 3.85 | 3.46 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 7/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 4/13 | 23% 3/13 | |
| PEC Zwolle | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.23 | 10.40 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stan Teuben Netherlands · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.27
Red cards0.00league 0.22
Cards 5+0%league 30%
Fouls16.0league 21.8
Penalties0.00league 0.27
Home wins0%league 48%
PEC ZwolleNo previous matches with this referee.
HeerenveenNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PEC Zwolle12 games · scored 16 · conceded 27
4
1
0-15
5
16-30
5
11
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
76-90
Heerenveen13 games · scored 22 · conceded 22
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
4
61-75
5
7
76-90
PEC Zwolle9 games · scored 13 · conceded 25
2
1
0-15
5
16-30
5
9
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
