PEC Zwolle vs Heracles – 3 May 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, May 3 · 13:30 MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle

PEC Zwolle 14th · 34 pts · 31 played DWLDL

First leg2–8 1–0Full time

Heracles 18th · 19 pts · 31 played LDLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

PEC Zwolle were clear favourites.

PEC Zwolle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (20 vs 10). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for PEC Zwolle. PEC Zwolle had 9.7 days of rest, Heracles 7 and had to travel 42 km.

Away travel42 kmRest days9.7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

PEC Zwolle63%

Draw20%

Heracles17%

Expected goals 2.26 – 1.12

PEC Zwolle56%

Draw24%

Heracles20%

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.99

PEC Zwolle63%

Draw20%

Heracles17%

Expected goals 2.24 – 1.10

PEC Zwolle55%

Draw23%

Heracles23%

Expected goals 2.02 – 1.25

PEC Zwolle62%

Draw20%

Heracles17%

Expected goals 2.23 – 1.11

Over 2.5 66% Both score 61% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Zwolle)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsRob Dieperink

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 34

Team strength

PEC Zwolle

Heracles

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 10

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 9

17 AttackIn forecast 7

14 DefenceIn forecast 10

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PEC Zwolle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Heracles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PEC Zwolle

Heracles

1.32 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.55

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.94

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

84% Scored inContext 55%

16% Clean sheetsContext 6%

9.61 ShotsContext 10.55

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.04

37% On target shareContext 35%

6.13 Shots in the boxContext 7.03

63% Box shareContext 64%

14% ConversionContext 10%

2.04 OffsidesContext 1.81

16.45 Shots allowedContext 16.74

6.23 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.74

4.10 BlocksContext 5.00

4.27 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.19

67% Save rateContext 62%

45% PossessionIn forecast 44%

369 PassesContext 336

289 Accurate passesContext 259

78% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.70

11.06 FoulsContext 12.84

11.58 Fouls sufferedContext 11.13

1.61 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.40

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.60

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.20

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.59

80% Scored inContext 40%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.40 ShotsContext 10.90

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.90

35% On target shareContext 27%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.90

67% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 4%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.50 Shots allowedContext 16.10

6.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.90

4.40 BlocksContext 4.00

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

62% Save rateContext 65%

48% PossessionIn forecast 44%

385 PassesContext 335

304 Accurate passesContext 259

79% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.63

12.10 FoulsContext 13.30

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PEC Zwolle

Rest9.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km253 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Heracles

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel42 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	PEC Zwolle	Heracles
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Apr	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 26 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	42 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	253 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PEC Zwolle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16T. de Graaff(G)

2S. Floranus 4A. MacNulty 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen

8Z. Buurmeester 30R. Thomas

22K. de Rooij 25T. Oosting 18O. Velanas

10Koen Kostons

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Heracles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16T. Jansink(G)

5D. van der Kust 18A. Van Hoorenbeeck 4D. Mirani 2M. Benita

32S. Scheperman 13J. Žambůrek

8M. Engels 73W. Ould-Chikh 17T. van Gilst

19L. Kulenović

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

PEC Zwolle Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Heracles Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

PEC Zwolle+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Heracles+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

PEC Zwolle · Home 1.67points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 7-4-4
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.27

Heracles · Away 0.27points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-13
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	PEC Zwolle	Heracles
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–6 AL 0–4 H	L 1–3 HL 3–4 A
Excelsior	D 2–2 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–5 AL 0–2 H	L 0–4 AW 4–2 H
NAC Breda	W 2–1 HD 2–2 A	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Groningen	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A	L 0–4 A
Sparta Rotterdam	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 0–2 AW 3–0 H
Ajax	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A	L 0–3 HL 0–2 A
Utrecht	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H	D 0–0 HL 0–4 A
Heerenveen	L 2–4 AW 2–1 H	L 1–4 AL 0–3 H
FC Volendam	L 1–2 HL 1–2 A	L 0–2 HL 0–3 A
Telstar	W 4–1 HW 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–2 AD 2–2 H	L 1–4 AL 1–4 H
AZ Alkmaar	W 3–1 HD 2–2 A	L 0–4 AL 1–2 H
Twente	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Feyenoord	L 1–6 A	L 2–4 AL 0–7 H
Points	34 of 90 · 1.13 per game	16 of 90 · 0.53 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 PEC Zwolle wins0 draws3 Heracles wins

Goals per game2.00 – 3.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

2 Nov 2025Heracles8–2PEC Zwolle
2 Mar 2025Heracles4–2PEC Zwolle
1 Sep 2024PEC Zwolle3–0Heracles
1 Oct 2023Heracles2–1PEC Zwolle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	PEC Zwolle	Heracles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.32	1.10
Conceded per game	2.13	2.55
Match goals	3.45	3.65	3.38
Over 1.5	87%	94%
Over 2.5	65%	71%	66%
Over 3.5	45%	42%
Both teams scored	71%	52%	61%
Clean sheets	16%	6%
Failed to score	16%	45%
Games	31	31

	PEC Zwolle	Heracles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	0.40
Conceded per game	2.30	2.60
Match goals	3.40	3.00	3.38
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	66%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	80%	40%	61%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	20%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	PEC Zwolle	Heracles	League
Corners
Corners won	3.83	4.19
Corners conceded	5.55	6.10
Match total	9.38	10.29	10.31
Over 8.5	52% 15/29	68% 21/31
Over 9.5	48% 14/29	45% 14/31
Over 10.5	34% 10/29	35% 11/31
Cards
Cards	1.77	1.97
Opponent cards	1.45	1.61
Match total	3.22	3.58	3.29
Over 3.5	39% 12/31	42% 13/31
Over 4.5	23% 7/31	26% 8/31

	PEC Zwolle	Heracles	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	4.20
Corners conceded	4.30	5.50
Match total	9.80	9.70	10.31
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.70
Opponent cards	1.30	0.60
Match total	2.50	2.30	3.29
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Rob Dieperink Netherlands · 34 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.15league 3.13

Red cards0.15league 0.17

Cards 5+26%league 25%

Fouls21.9league 21.2

Penalties0.24league 0.22

Home wins35%league 44%

PEC Zwolle5 with this referee

Record0-4-1 Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.2 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D12 Apr 26H · Excelsior2–20
D24 Sep 25A · AZ Alkmaar2–22
D15 Mar 25A · Sparta Rotterdam1–10
L26 Oct 24A · PSV Eindhoven0–61
D17 Sep 23H · GO Ahead Eagles1–11

Heracles4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.5 Pens for · against1 · 2

W8 Nov 25A · Excelsior2–12
L19 Oct 25H · Feyenoord0–71
L29 Aug 25A · Groningen0–41
W12 Jan 24A · Waalwijk2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.