PEC Zwolle
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
PEC Zwolle
14th · 34 pts · 31 played
DWLDL
First leg2–8
1–0Full time
Heracles
18th · 19 pts · 31 played
LDLLL
PEC Zwolle62.6%fair odds 1.60
Draw20.2%fair odds 4.96
Heracles17.2%fair odds 5.82
Expected goals2.26 – 1.12total 3.38
Likeliest score2–19.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Heracles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| PEC Zwolle ↓ · Heracles → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PEC Zwolle goals, columns Heracles goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%10.27
- 1–19.1%11.02
- 2–08.7%11.49
- 3–17.3%13.62
- 1–07.2%13.80
- 3–06.6%15.24
- 2–25.4%18.36
- 1–24.8%20.75
- 4–14.1%24.10
- 3–24.1%24.36
Winning margin
21.8%
PEC Zwolle by 3+
fair 4.60
18.8%
PEC Zwolle by 2
fair 5.32
22.1%
PEC Zwolle by 1
fair 4.53
20.2%
Draw
fair 4.96
10.7%
Heracles by 1
fair 9.35
4.6%
Heracles by 2
fair 21.73
1.9%
Heracles by 3+
fair 52.75
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
19%4
25%5+
PEC Zwolle goals
10%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
Heracles goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 62.6% | 62.3% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 20.2% | 20.4% | -0.2 pp |
| Heracles win | 17.2% | 17.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.6% | 64.9% | +0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.8% | 60.3% | +0.5 pp |
| Expected goals PEC Zwolle | 2.26 | 2.23 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Heracles | 1.12 | 1.11 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- PEC Zwolle win62.6%1.60
- Draw20.2%4.96
- Heracles win17.2%5.82
- Double chance PEC Zwolle or draw82.8%1.21
- Double chance PEC Zwolle or Heracles79.8%1.25
- Double chance Heracles or draw37.4%2.68
- Draw no bet PEC Zwolle78.5%1.27
- Draw no bet Heracles21.5%4.64
Goals
- Over 0.596.1%1.04
- Over 1.585.5%1.17
- Over 2.565.6%1.52
- Over 3.543.7%2.29
- Over 4.525.2%3.97
- Under 1.514.5%6.91
- Under 2.534.4%2.91
- Under 3.556.3%1.78
Both teams to score
- Yes60.8%1.65
- No39.2%2.55
- Yes and over 2.551.7%1.93
- PEC Zwolle win and yes33.8%2.96
- Draw and yes16.3%6.13
- Heracles win and yes10.6%9.41
Team goals
- PEC Zwolle over 0.589.6%1.12
- PEC Zwolle over 1.566.0%1.52
- PEC Zwolle over 2.539.4%2.54
- Heracles over 0.567.3%1.49
- Heracles over 1.530.8%3.25
- Heracles over 2.510.3%9.68
- PEC Zwolle clean sheet32.7%3.06
- Heracles clean sheet10.4%9.59
- PEC Zwolle win to nil28.8%3.47
- Heracles win to nil6.6%15.24
Handicap
- PEC Zwolle −1.540.6%2.47
- PEC Zwolle −2.521.8%4.60
- Heracles +1.559.4%1.68
- Heracles +2.578.2%1.28
- Heracles −1.56.5%15.39
- PEC Zwolle +1.593.5%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored284
Favourite won51.8%
Avg chance given to result41.1%
1X2 Brier0.589
Over 2.5 called right61.3%
BTTS called right61.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 41 | 38.0% | 34.1% |
| 40–50% | 106 | 44.9% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 72 | 55.2% | 48.6% |
| 60–70% | 36 | 64.4% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 74.3% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 235 of 284 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5898 | 0.5833 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.9% | 42.1% |
| Favourite won | 51.1% | 52.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 235 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 284 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.