PEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 21). Absences weigh more on PEC Zwolle. PEC Zwolle had 7 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 7.2 and had to travel 76 km.
Away travel76 kmRest days7 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
PEC Zwolle35%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen39%
PEC Zwolle36%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen37%
PEC Zwolle36%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen38%
PEC Zwolle28%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen46%
PEC Zwolle35%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen38%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zwolle)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 19
Team strength
PEC Zwolle
NEC Nijmegen
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
17
AttackIn forecast
37
14
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PEC ZwolleNEC Nijmegen
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.78
1.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.89
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.92
67%
Scored inContext
100%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
8.44
ShotsContext
15.78
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
26%
On target shareContext
44%
4.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.89
57%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.71
16.89
Shots allowedContext
10.56
6.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.22
3.44
BlocksContext
2.00
4.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
71%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
374
PassesContext
435
298
Accurate passesContext
352
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.02
10.22
FoulsContext
12.11
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
2.11
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.22
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.85
70%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.80
ShotsContext
15.40
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
27%
On target shareContext
46%
5.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
57%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
18%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.71
16.40
Shots allowedContext
11.50
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.40
BlocksContext
2.30
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
72%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
390
PassesContext
428
313
Accurate passesContext
345
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.60
FoulsContext
11.80
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PEC Zwolle
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km274 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NEC Nijmegen
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel76 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PEC Zwolle |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 7.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 76 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 274 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
1J. Schendelaar(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
6T. Gooijer
35Jamiro Monteiro
34N. Fichtinger
22K. de Rooij
25T. Oosting
7S. Shoretire
10Koen Kostons
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
4A. Kaplan
3P. Sandler
14E. Dasa
6D. Nejašmić
11B. Önal
23K. Sano
10T. Chery
25S. Ouaissa
30B. Linssen
18K. Ogawa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PEC Zwolle-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- NEC Nijmegen+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
PEC Zwolle · Home
0.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 2.00
NEC Nijmegen · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | PEC Zwolle | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–4 H | L 3–5 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Twente | W 1–0 H | D 3–3 H |
| Points | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game | 8 of 15 · 1.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 PEC Zwolle wins0 draws3 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game0.33 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 11 Jan 2025PEC Zwolle0–1NEC Nijmegen
- 24 Aug 2024NEC Nijmegen1–0PEC Zwolle
- 9 Dec 2023PEC Zwolle1–3NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PEC Zwolle | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 1.89 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 4.67 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 89% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 78% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| PEC Zwolle | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 1.89 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 4.67 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 89% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 78% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PEC Zwolle | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.63 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 7.88 | 9.33 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 3.11 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.00 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| PEC Zwolle | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.78 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 7.56 | 9.80 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.60 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.42league 3.48
Red cards0.05league 0.21
Cards 5+16%league 35%
Fouls22.2league 22.5
Penalties0.11league 0.24
Home wins53%league 48%
PEC Zwolle1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D13 Apr 25H · Twente1–12
NEC Nijmegen5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L31 Aug 25A · Fortuna Sittard2–31
- W14 May 25H · NAC Breda3–00
- D29 Mar 25H · AZ Alkmaar3–33
- W9 Nov 24A · Waalwijk3–01
- L18 Aug 23A · Heracles1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PEC Zwolle8 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
8
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
76-90
NEC Nijmegen9 games · scored 25 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
6
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
PEC Zwolle9 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
8
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 27 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
7
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
