PEC Zwolle vs Telstar – 31 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Jan 31 · 17:45 MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle

PEC Zwolle 12th · 23 pts · 20 played WLDWL

First leg2–0 4–1Full time

Telstar 16th · 16 pts · 20 played DWLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

PEC Zwolle were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on PEC Zwolle. PEC Zwolle had 7 days of rest, Telstar 6.3 and had to travel 98 km.

Away travel98 kmRest days7 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2

PEC Zwolle43%

Draw27%

Telstar30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.21

PEC Zwolle44%

Draw27%

Telstar30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.19

PEC Zwolle45%

Draw27%

Telstar29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

PEC Zwolle36%

Draw27%

Telstar37%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.36

PEC Zwolle43%

Draw27%

Telstar30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.21

Over 2.5 51% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Zwolle)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 33

Team strength

PEC Zwolle

Telstar

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

17 AttackIn forecast 24

14 DefenceIn forecast 13

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PEC Zwolle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PEC Zwolle

Telstar

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.65

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

85% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 15%

8.40 ShotsContext 12.55

3.21 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.42

36% On target shareContext 34%

5.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.89

61% Box shareContext 60%

16% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.41

17.10 Shots allowedContext 15.20

6.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.75

4.05 BlocksContext 4.53

4.32 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.10

68% Save rateContext 71%

43% PossessionIn forecast 43%

357 PassesContext 353

278 Accurate passesContext 273

78% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.87

10.55 FoulsContext 10.75

12.25 Fouls sufferedContext 10.85

1.95 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

+0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

100% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.20 ShotsContext 10.70

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44

43% On target shareContext 29%

5.22 Shots in the boxContext 6.33

67% Box shareContext 56%

18% ConversionContext 11%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.78

17.90 Shots allowedContext 15.30

6.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

4.60 BlocksContext 5.00

4.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.30

68% Save rateContext 77%

43% PossessionIn forecast 42%

353 PassesContext 345

271 Accurate passesContext 261

77% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.88

10.80 FoulsContext 8.80

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PEC Zwolle

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km153 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Telstar

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel98 km122 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	PEC Zwolle	Telstar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Jan	6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	98 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	153 km	122 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PEC Zwolle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

16T. de Graaff(G)

2S. Floranus 4A. MacNulty 28S. Graves 6T. Gooijer

35Jamiro Monteiro 34N. Fichtinger 25T. Oosting

7S. Shoretire 10Koen Kostons 9Y. Namli

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Koeman(G)

6D. Bakker 4G. Offerhaus 14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo

2J. Hardeveld 23C. Hatenboer 17N. Rossen 11T. Noslin

7S. Hetli 39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp

9Milan Zonneveld

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

PEC Zwolle Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Telstar Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

PEC Zwolle-1.3 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Telstar+1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

PEC Zwolle · Home 1.78points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 5-1-3
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 1.33

Telstar · Away 1.00points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-4
Scored: 0.78
Conceded: 1.11

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	PEC Zwolle	Telstar
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–2 AD 2–2 H	D 2–2 H
AZ Alkmaar	W 3–1 HD 2–2 A	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Twente	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Excelsior	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 1–0 H	L 1–3 H
Feyenoord	L 1–6 A	L 1–2 H
Heerenveen	W 2–1 H	L 2–3 H
Groningen	D 2–2 A	L 0–2 A
Sparta Rotterdam	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Heracles	L 2–8 A	D 1–1 A
NAC Breda	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–4 H	W 2–0 A
FC Volendam	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 H
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–2 H	W 4–2 H
Ajax	L 1–3 A	L 2–3 HL 0–2 A
Utrecht	L 0–2 H	D 1–1 H
Points	20 of 57 · 1.05 per game	16 of 57 · 0.84 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 PEC Zwolle wins0 draws0 Telstar wins

Goals per game2.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

15 Aug 2025Telstar0–2PEC Zwolle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	PEC Zwolle	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.20
Conceded per game	2.10	1.65
Match goals	3.40	2.85	2.71
Over 1.5	85%	80%
Over 2.5	65%	50%	51%
Over 3.5	45%	40%
Both teams scored	65%	60%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	15%
Failed to score	15%	30%
Games	20	20

	PEC Zwolle	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.20
Conceded per game	2.30	1.40
Match goals	3.80	2.60	2.71
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	51%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	PEC Zwolle	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	2.78	5.00
Corners conceded	6.11	5.89
Match total	8.89	10.89	10.23
Over 8.5	50% 9/18	79% 15/19
Over 9.5	44% 8/18	68% 13/19
Over 10.5	28% 5/18	58% 11/19
Cards
Cards	2.15	1.50
Opponent cards	1.60	1.85
Match total	3.75	3.35	3.58
Over 3.5	50% 10/20	35% 7/20
Over 4.5	30% 6/20	30% 6/20

	PEC Zwolle	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	2.89	4.20
Corners conceded	7.11	5.40
Match total	10.00	9.60	10.23
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.30
Opponent cards	1.60	2.40
Match total	3.80	3.70	3.58
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 33 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.36league 3.37

Red cards0.30league 0.20

Cards 5+24%league 31%

Fouls22.6league 21.7

Penalties0.33league 0.27

Home wins42%league 44%

PEC Zwolle4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

D23 Nov 25A · Groningen2–23
L4 Oct 25H · PSV Eindhoven0–41
L24 Nov 24A · Ajax0–21
L24 Feb 24H · PSV Eindhoven1–72

Telstar

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.