PEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 23). PEC Zwolle had ? days of rest, Twente ? and had to travel 63 km.
Away travel63 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
PEC Zwolle36%
Draw27%
Twente38%
PEC Zwolle35%
Draw27%
Twente38%
PEC Zwolle36%
Draw27%
Twente38%
PEC Zwolle29%
Draw26%
Twente45%
PEC Zwolle35%
Draw27%
Twente38%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zwolle)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 42
Team strength
PEC Zwolle
Twente
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
17
AttackIn forecast
41
14
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTwente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PEC ZwolleTwente
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.50
ShotsContext
10.60
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
33%
On target shareContext
34%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
61%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.44
OffsidesContext
2.25
13.00
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.78
BlocksContext
2.89
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
72%
Save rateContext
49%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
433
PassesContext
396
358
Accurate passesContext
314
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.00
FoulsContext
10.70
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PEC Zwolle
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Twente
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel63 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PEC Zwolle |
Twente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 63 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.3 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
3O. Aertssen
35Jamiro Monteiro
30R. Thomas
22K. de Rooij
25T. Oosting
11D. Mbayo
10Koen Kostons
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
3R. Pröpper
23S. Lemkin
28B. van Rooij
20T. van den Belt
6R. Zerrouki
8T. Booth
32A. Verschueren
7M. van Bergen
9R. van Wolfswinkel
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PEC Zwolle
Absences are shown before kick-off
Twente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PEC Zwolle+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Twente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
PEC Zwolle · Home
No home games yet this season.
Twente · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 PEC Zwolle wins2 draws1 Twente wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 13 Apr 2025PEC Zwolle1–1Twente
- 14 Sep 2024Twente1–1PEC Zwolle
- 20 Aug 2023Twente3–1PEC Zwolle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PEC Zwolle | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 57% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| PEC Zwolle | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 57% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PEC Zwolle | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.60 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 2.60 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| PEC Zwolle | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 9.30 | 10.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.36league 2.40
Red cards0.19league 0.20
Cards 5+29%league 20%
Fouls22.3league 19.4
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins48%league 60%
PEC Zwolle7 with this referee
Record0-5-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D11 May 25H · GO Ahead Eagles1–11
- D5 Apr 25A · Almere City FC2–22
- D1 Feb 25H · Utrecht3–32
- L13 Dec 24H · Willem II0–10
- D6 Oct 24A · Heerenveen1–12
Twente4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 May 25A · Sparta Rotterdam2–00
- L21 Dec 24A · AZ Alkmaar0–14
- D11 Nov 23H · NEC Nijmegen3–31
- L24 Sep 23A · Waalwijk0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PEC ZwolleTwentePEC Zwolle10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
2
5
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
