Pisa vs AS Roma – 30 Aug 2025

Serie A Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 30 · 19:45 Arena Garibaldi – Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa

Pisa 14th · 1 pts · 1 played D

0–1Full time

AS Roma 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were clear favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 15). Pisa had 6 days of rest, AS Roma 7 and had to travel 265 km.

Away travel265 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Pisa13%

Draw21%

AS Roma66%

Expected goals 0.77 – 1.99

Pisa13%

Draw20%

AS Roma67%

Expected goals 0.83 – 2.15

Pisa13%

Draw21%

AS Roma66%

Expected goals 0.77 – 1.99

Pisa9%

Draw18%

AS Roma72%

Expected goals 0.68 – 2.23

Pisa13%

Draw20%

AS Roma67%

Expected goals 0.83 – 2.15

Over 2.5 52% Both score 47% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Pisa)

No weather data yet

RefereeGiuseppe Collu

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 10

Team strength

Pisa

AS Roma

15 L90 StrengthIn forecast 71

12 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

15 AttackIn forecast 72

21 DefenceIn forecast 75

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Pisa

Attack—

Defense risk—

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Pisa

AS Roma

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

— Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

— xGVia Att/Def 1.23

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.00

— Goals minus xGContext +0.07

— Scored inContext 100%

— Clean sheetsContext 60%

— ShotsContext 12.60

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

— On target shareContext 37%

— Shots in the boxContext 8.56

— Box shareContext 63%

— ConversionContext 10%

— OffsidesContext 1.40

— Shots allowedContext 12.60

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

— BlocksContext 2.89

— Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

— Save rateContext 90%

— PossessionIn forecast 48%

— PassesContext 425

— Accurate passesContext 361

— Pass accuracyContext 85%

— Team ratingContext 7.08

— FoulsContext 10.80

— Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

— Yellow cardsContext 1.50

— Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 0 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Pisa

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km457 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AS Roma

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel265 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Pisa	AS Roma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Aug	7Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	265 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	457 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	14.8	14.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Pisa Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1A. Šemper(G)

47Mateus Lusuardi 4A. Caracciolo 5S. Canestrelli

3S. Angori 10M. Tramoni 20M. Aebischer 6M. Marin 15I. Touré

9H. Meister 32S. Moreo

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-3

99M. Svilar(G)

5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini 22Hermoso

3Angeliño 17K. Koné 4B. Cristante 43Wesley

92S. El Shaarawy 11E. Ferguson 18M. Soulé

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Pisa Absences are shown before kick-off

AS Roma Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Pisa+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
AS Roma+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Pisa · Home No home games yet this season.

AS Roma · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Pisa	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	2.75
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	47%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Pisa	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	2.75
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	47%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Pisa	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	2.00
Corners conceded	10.00	4.00
Match total	14.00	6.00	8.23
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	1.00
Opponent cards	3.00	1.00
Match total	3.00	2.00	4.00
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Pisa	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.20
Corners conceded	10.00	5.00
Match total	14.00	9.20	8.23
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	0.00	1.50
Opponent cards	3.00	1.80
Match total	3.00	3.30	4.00
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Giuseppe Collu 10 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.90league 3.93

Red cards0.00league 0.14

Cards 5+20%league 50%

Fouls26.2league 24.7

Penalties0.00league 0.14

Home wins40%league 43%

Pisa

No previous matches with this referee.

AS Roma

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.