Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were slight favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Pisa. Pisa had 6.9 days of rest, Napoli 5.6 and had to travel 449 km.
Away travel449 kmRest days6.9 · 5.6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Pisa17%
Draw25%
Napoli58%
Pisa12%
Draw20%
Napoli68%
Pisa17%
Draw24%
Napoli59%
Pisa13%
Draw22%
Napoli65%
Pisa18%
Draw23%
Napoli59%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFrancesco Fourneau
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 48
Team strength
Pisa
Napoli
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
61
15
AttackIn forecast
61
21
DefenceIn forecast
70
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaNapoli
0.69
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
44%
Scored inContext
78%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
9.56
ShotsContext
12.97
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.91
29%
On target shareContext
36%
7.31
Shots in the boxContext
8.31
70%
Box shareContext
63%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
2.10
OffsidesContext
1.85
14.14
Shots allowedContext
10.28
4.54
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.21
4.03
BlocksContext
2.88
3.16
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.32
65%
Save rateContext
69%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
316
PassesContext
538
243
Accurate passesContext
469
77%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.97
FoulsContext
11.36
11.42
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.08
Yellow cardsContext
1.31
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.76
-0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
30%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.50
ShotsContext
13.60
4.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
35%
On target shareContext
35%
6.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
70%
Box shareContext
63%
6%
ConversionContext
11%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.30
Shots allowedContext
8.90
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.67
BlocksContext
2.13
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
54%
Save rateContext
71%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
324
PassesContext
572
251
Accurate passesContext
510
77%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.59
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.60
FoulsContext
9.80
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km323 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Napoli
Rest5.6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel449 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 10 May | 5.6Serie A 2025-2026, 11 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 449 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 323 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.4 | 7.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
5S. Canestrelli
4A. Caracciolo
33A. Calabresi
3S. Angori
14E. Akinsanmiro
8M. Højholt
20M. Aebischer
7M. Léris
32S. Moreo
81F. Stojilković
Napoli
Confirmed XI
1A. Meret(G)
4A. Buongiorno
13A. Rrahmani
31S. Beukema
37L. Spinazzola
68S. Lobotka
8S. McTominay
22G. Di Lorenzo
27Alisson Santos
19R. Højlund
20E. Elmas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Napoli
Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Napoli-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.56points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-12
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.28
Napoli · Away
1.67points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-3-6
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese | L 0–3 AW 1–0 H | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Lecce | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Parma | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Genoa | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Torino | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Como | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Cagliari | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Juventus | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Bologna | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A | L 2–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Fiorentina | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A |
| AC Milan | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Verona | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Inter | L 2–6 AL 0–2 H | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Udinese | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lazio | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 18 of 105 · 0.51 per game | 67 of 105 · 1.91 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Pisa wins0 draws1 Napoli wins
Goals per game2.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 22 Sep 2025Napoli3–2Pisa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.69 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.53 | 2.50 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 53% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 22% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Pisa | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.63 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 2.91 | |
| Match total | 8.46 | 7.79 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 16/35 | 30% 10/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 14/35 | 21% 7/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 10/35 | 21% 7/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.22 | 1.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.64 | 1.94 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 3.33 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 22/36 | 39% 14/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 12/36 | 17% 6/36 | |
| Pisa | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 8.67 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.20 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francesco Fourneau Italy · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 3.69
Red cards0.10league 0.19
Cards 5+52%league 34%
Fouls25.7league 24.7
Penalties0.29league 0.28
Home wins48%league 39%
Pisa1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D21 Dec 25A · Cagliari2–22
Napoli3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Jan 26H · Sassuolo1–00
- W21 Aug 22H · Monza4–02
- W19 Mar 22H · Udinese2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa36 games · scored 25 · conceded 66
5
7
0-15
4
4
16-30
2
15
31-45
6
11
46-60
3
11
61-75
5
18
76-90
Napoli36 games · scored 54 · conceded 36
11
8
0-15
6
3
16-30
11
4
31-45
11
8
46-60
6
6
61-75
9
7
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 5 · conceded 23
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
5
61-75
6
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
4
4
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
