Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Udinese were slight favourites.
Udinese were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 15). Udinese usually keep the ball (47% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Pisa had 14.8 days of rest, Udinese 13.8 and had to travel 345 km.
Away travel345 kmRest days14.8 · 13.8Matches / 14d0 · 1
Pisa29%
Draw29%
Udinese42%
Pisa31%
Draw27%
Udinese43%
Pisa29%
Draw29%
Udinese42%
Pisa23%
Draw28%
Udinese49%
Pisa30%
Draw27%
Udinese43%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Massa
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 89
Team strength
Pisa
Udinese
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
15
AttackIn forecast
22
21
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUdinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaUdinese
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.59
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.00
ShotsContext
11.50
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
28%
On target shareContext
39%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
46%
Box shareContext
47%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
—
15.50
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.00
BlocksContext
1.50
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
82%
Save rateContext
57%
33%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
273
PassesContext
361
196
Accurate passesContext
297
72%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.07
11.50
FoulsContext
7.50
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.50
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
—
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
—
Scored inContext
50%
—
Clean sheetsContext
10%
—
ShotsContext
11.50
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
—
On target shareContext
33%
—
Shots in the boxContext
6.89
—
Box shareContext
57%
—
ConversionContext
7%
—
OffsidesContext
1.57
—
Shots allowedContext
13.40
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
—
BlocksContext
3.67
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
—
Save rateContext
65%
—
PossessionIn forecast
47%
—
PassesContext
370
—
Accurate passesContext
303
—
Pass accuracyContext
82%
—
Team ratingContext
6.87
—
FoulsContext
13.50
—
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
—
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
—
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Udinese
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel345 km642 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Udinese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.8Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 13.8Serie A 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 345 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 642 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
47Mateus Lusuardi
4A. Caracciolo
5S. Canestrelli
3S. Angori
20M. Aebischer
14E. Akinsanmiro
15I. Touré
10M. Tramoni
32S. Moreo
9H. Meister
Udinese
Confirmed XI
90R. Sava(G)
28O. Solet
31T. Kristensen
13N. Bertola
11H. Kamara
14A. Atta
8J. Karlström
24J. Piotrowski
19K. Ehizibue
9K. Davis
17Iker Bravo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Udinese
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Udinese+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Udinese · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Pisa | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.50 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.00 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 4.50 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Pisa | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.50 | 6.67 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.45 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 89 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.61league 3.46
Red cards0.25league 0.08
Cards 5+52%league 33%
Fouls25.0league 25.8
Penalties0.13league 0.17
Home wins34%league 42%
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
Udinese3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L30 Oct 24A · Venezia2–35
- W13 May 24A · Lecce2–01
- D28 Aug 23A · Salernitana1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
76-90
Udinese2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Pisa2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
