PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 65 pts · 25 played
WWLWW
First leg5–1
2–1Full time
AZ Alkmaar
6th · 39 pts · 25 played
LDWWL
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for AZ Alkmaar. PSV Eindhoven had 7.1 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 6.1 and had to travel 141 km.
Away travel141 kmRest days7.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
PSV Eindhoven66%
Draw20%
AZ Alkmaar14%
PSV Eindhoven69%
Draw19%
AZ Alkmaar12%
PSV Eindhoven67%
Draw19%
AZ Alkmaar14%
PSV Eindhoven58%
Draw22%
AZ Alkmaar19%
PSV Eindhoven64%
Draw21%
AZ Alkmaar15%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 57
Team strength
PSV EindhovenAZ Alkmaar
78
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
60
AttackIn forecast
52
64
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenAZ Alkmaar
2.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.68
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
2.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.88
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
96%
Scored inContext
92%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.64
ShotsContext
15.12
7.12
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.68
40%
On target shareContext
38%
12.16
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
69%
Box shareContext
63%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.73
11.00
Shots allowedContext
12.20
3.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.36
3.43
BlocksContext
3.54
2.68
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.96
69%
Save rateContext
67%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
553
PassesContext
451
481
Accurate passesContext
371
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.52
FoulsContext
10.36
8.64
Fouls sufferedContext
10.92
1.32
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.50
ShotsContext
11.90
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
39%
On target shareContext
38%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
62%
Box shareContext
56%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.17
10.20
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.13
BlocksContext
2.80
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
65%
Save rateContext
63%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
542
PassesContext
475
467
Accurate passesContext
388
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.60
FoulsContext
12.20
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km261 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AZ Alkmaar
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel141 km131 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 141 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 261 km | 131 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
8S. Dest
4A. Obispo
22J. Schouten
25K. Sildillia
23J. Veerman
10P. Wanner
5I. Perišić
34I. Saibari
27D. Man
9R. Pepi
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
34M. de Wit
23B. van Duijl
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
22Elijah Dijkstra
27Ro-Zangelo Daal
6P. Koopmeiners
10S. Mijnans
17I. Jensen
9T. Parrott
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- AZ Alkmaar+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
2.42points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-1
- Scored
- 3.25
- Conceded
- 1.42
AZ Alkmaar · Away
1.46points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-6
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.46
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | PSV Eindhoven | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles | W 3–1 AW 4–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Heerenveen | W 3–1 HW 2–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Groningen | W 2–1 AW 4–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| Feyenoord | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | D 3–3 H |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 AW 5–2 H | L 3–4 A |
| Excelsior | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Utrecht | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 AW 4–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 4–0 A | L 1–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Ajax | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 5–3 A | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Telstar | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Twente | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 6–1 H | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 62 of 72 · 2.58 per game | 39 of 72 · 1.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 PSV Eindhoven wins1 draws0 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game3.25 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 9 Nov 2025AZ Alkmaar1–5PSV Eindhoven
- 11 Jan 2025PSV Eindhoven2–2AZ Alkmaar
- 19 Oct 2024AZ Alkmaar1–2PSV Eindhoven
- 17 Dec 2023AZ Alkmaar0–4PSV Eindhoven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.92 | 1.68 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.12 | 3.28 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 96% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 84% | 64% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 72% | 72% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 4% | 8% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| PSV Eindhoven | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.16 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.12 | 4.36 | |
| Match total | 11.28 | 9.76 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 20/25 | 72% 18/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 20/25 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 14/25 | 28% 7/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.36 | 2.24 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.68 | 1.48 | |
| Match total | 3.04 | 3.72 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 32% 8/25 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% 6/25 | 28% 7/25 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 7.90 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.20 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.46league 3.28
Red cards0.30league 0.19
Cards 5+35%league 30%
Fouls22.4league 21.6
Penalties0.18league 0.25
Home wins47%league 45%
PSV Eindhoven5 with this referee
Record4-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L13 Feb 26A · FC Volendam1–20
- W18 Oct 25H · GO Ahead Eagles2–11
- W17 Aug 25A · Twente2–02
- W6 Dec 24H · Twente6–10
- W9 Nov 24A · NAC Breda3–02
AZ Alkmaar6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L28 Sep 25A · NEC Nijmegen1–26
- W11 May 25H · Groningen3–01
- W9 Feb 25H · PEC Zwolle2–01
- W14 Sep 24H · Heerenveen9–10
- D28 Jan 24A · Heerenveen2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven25 games · scored 73 · conceded 30
13
2
0-15
15
3
16-30
12
9
31-45
11
3
46-60
9
8
61-75
13
5
76-90
AZ Alkmaar25 games · scored 42 · conceded 40
5
9
0-15
6
4
16-30
10
8
31-45
5
4
46-60
6
5
61-75
10
10
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
6
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
